When streaming giants collide: Netflix swallows Warner’s crown jewels

MUMBAI: In what can only be described as the streaming industry’s biggest power grab, Netflix has outmanoeuvred Paramount and Comcast to snap up Warner Bros Discovery’s premium content engine for a cool $83bn. It’s not just big—it’s biblical. Think Harry Potter, DC superheroes, Friends and Game of Thrones, all under one roof. For Netflix, this isn’t merely an acquisition; it’s coronation.

The maths is staggering. Netflix and HBO together will command roughly 33 per cent of US streaming hours—a full 50 per cent larger than Amazon Prime Video’s 21 per cent share. With a combined television watch time of 14 per cent, they’ll pip YouTube’s 13 per cent to become America’s largest entertainer. Disney Plus, Amazon Prime and Apple TV will need to rethink their content cheque books—and fast.

But here’s where it gets interesting: Warner Bros Discovery isn’t going quietly into that good night. The deal is a surgical strike—Netflix is buying only WBD’s content crown jewels (HBO, HBO Max, WB Studios and DC Entertainment) whilst spinning off Discovery Global’s networks, sports assets and cable operations. It’s cherry-picking at its finest, keeping the cream and leaving the curds.

The Indian plot twist

Whilst Hollywood celebrates (or mourns), India’s entertainment ecosystem is bracing for aftershocks. Netflix already lords over 25 per cent of India’s subscription video-on-demand market, and this deal sharpens that edge considerably. With JioStar dominating sports and Netflix now consolidating entertainment, the squeeze is on for smaller over-the-top platforms and linear broadcasters like Zee Entertainment and Sun TV Network, whose digital contributions languish at 10-15 per cent of revenues.

For India’s cinema exhibitors—PVR-Inox chief amongst them—the deal poses an existential question. Hollywood contributes 15-20 per cent of gross box office collections, with Warner Bros Discovery accounting for roughly 20 per cent of that Hollywood pie (or about 4 per cent of total collections). Small beer? Perhaps. But English films deliver disproportionately high food and beverage and advertising yields, making them strategically vital.
Here’s the rub: India represents a paltry 2-3 per cent of global box office for Hollywood tent-poles. Take Superman 2025—it raked in $395m globally but a mere $10m in India. Because India is such a minor revenue pool, Netflix may well experiment with Warner’s franchise titles by shortening theatrical windows or testing direct-to-streaming launches to goose subscriber growth. In a worst-case scenario, Elara Capital reckons a 4 per cent revenue hit could drag PVR-Inox’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation down 6 per cent by fiscal 2028. For exhibitors still recovering from the pandemic and increasingly dependent on big-budget franchises, that’s a proper headache.

Content is king, distribution is kingdom

Netflix’s strategy here is vertically integrated ambition on steroids. Warner’s production engine married to Netflix’s global distribution muscle could accelerate content generation whilst delivering $2-3bn in annual cost synergies by year three. The deal should be earnings-accretive by year two, giving Netflix both pricing power and churn reduction as viewers no longer need to hop between apps for premium content.

In India, this translates to potential average revenue per user expansion in a notoriously price-sensitive market. Netflix can now renegotiate minimum guarantees and distribution terms with considerably more swagger. Meanwhile, Amazon Prime’s scaling ability looks increasingly precarious as Netflix and JioStar entrench themselves at opposite ends of the entertainment spectrum—subscription versus advertising-supported video-on-demand.

The strategic importance of the Indian Premier League may well spike, as JioStar will need to retain digital rights post-2028 to defend its advertising-video-on-demand leadership against Netflix’s entertainment juggernaut. Smaller and niche streaming services may find their only viable path is seeking partnerships with Amazon to remain relevant.

The regulatory road ahead

Before Netflix can pop the champagne, there’s the small matter of US and European Union regulatory approvals—a process expected to take 12-18 months. Competition authorities will scrutinise whether a 33 per cent streaming share constitutes undue market concentration. Expect fireworks.

For global cinema chains and rival streamers, the message is unambiguous: adapt or die. Warner Bros and Netflix can fund mega-budget scripts together, potentially risking blockbusters going straight to streaming or drastically shortening theatrical windows. Given that Warner Bros fills a substantial chunk of Hollywood release schedules outside the US, exhibitors worldwide are right to feel queasy.

The final reel

This deal marks a global entertainment reset. Netflix has secured “must-have” status, armed itself with a premium content library that enjoys instant recall, and positioned itself as the vertically integrated behemoth that others must now chase. For India, the implications ripple across exhibition, linear broadcasting and streaming alike.

The clouds are darkening for traditional entertainment players. With JioStar holding a sports monopoly and Netflix now wielding entertainment’s nuclear arsenal, the question isn’t whether smaller players will struggle—it’s whether they’ll survive at all. In the streaming wars, Netflix just rolled out the big guns. Everyone else is now playing catch-up.

Or as they might say in Mumbai’s multiplexes: the interval’s over, and Netflix just walked off with the entire second half.

Note: This analysis is based on Elara Securities research. The views expressed are those of Elara Capital’s media and entertainment research team led by Karan Taurani. Nothing in this report should be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investment in securities markets is subject to market risks—read all related documents carefully before investing.