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Tag: Zoramthanga

  • ABP News-CVoter exit poll: Congress looking At 3 wins, BJP 1. close fight across 5 States

    ABP News-CVoter exit poll: Congress looking At 3 wins, BJP 1. close fight across 5 States

    Mumbai: The exit poll survey conducted by ABP News and CVoter has thrown up mixed results for the two major parties, BJP and Congress, in the five states — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram — where Assembly elections were conducted this month. While Rajasthan is likely to stay true to its ‘revolving door’ trend and see a return of the BJP to power, the Congress may clinch Madhya Pradesh. According to the ABP News-CVoter exit poll, a neck-and-neck fight is predicted in Chhattisgarh, with the Congress placed marginally ahead. In Mizoram, the newly formed Zoram People’s Movement is likely to give the ruling Mizo National Front a run for its money, making it a really close contest.

    The elections to five states took place on four dates between November 7 and 30, with Chhattisgarh going to polls in two phases and the rest in a single phase.

    In Mizoram, which went to polls on 7 November, CM Zoramthanga-led MNF is predicted to win anywhere between 15 and 21 seats in the 40-member assembly, down from 26 in 2018. The ZPM may bag 12-18 seats. In terms of vote share, MNF is likely to have 32% voter support, against ZPM’s 28.7%, according to the ABP News-CVoter exit poll. The Congress could bag 2-8 seats with a vote share of 24.7%.

    The ABP News-CVoter exit poll says Chhattisgarh, where the elections were held in two phases (on 7 November and 17 November), could stay with the Congress but the contest is very close. With the Congress predicted to win 41-53 seats, down from 68 in 2018, it finds the BJP breathing down its neck with a seat projection of 36-48. The magic number in the 90-member House is 46. The BJP, which won only 15 seats in 2018, appears to have increased its vote share from 33% in the last election to 41.2% this time, while the Congress vote share has gone up only marginally from 43.1% to 43.4%.

    According to the ABP News-CVoter exit poll, Madhya Pradesh is predicted to go with the Congress, with a seat projection of 113-137 against the ruling BJP’s 88-112. BSP may get 1-5 seats. In terms of vote share, the Congress has a voter support of 44.1%, while the BJP is enjoying the backing of 40.7%.

    The ABP News-CVoter exit poll predicts that Rajasthan will bring back the BJP to power, giving it 94-114 seats, and foiling the Congress’ efforts to break the state’s historical pattern of alternating between BJP and Congress. The ruling Congress is likely to win only 71-91 seats, losing at least 19 seats from its 2018 tally. The majority mark in this election is 100 as polling was held for 199 seats, and not all 200, because of the demise of a candidate. Election to this seat will be conducted on a later date.

    In Telangana, which went to polls on Thursday, 30 November, the ABP News-CVoter exit poll has predicted an upset for chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao who may not be able to hold on to power for a third term. His Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is projected to win only 38-54 seats this time, down from its 2018 tally of 88, paving the way for the Congress that is predicted to win 49-65 seats. The majority mark is 60 in the 119-member Assembly. The BJP, which put all its might during the campaigning, may get 5-13 seats. Others, including AIMIM, are likely to get 5-9 seats. At 40.7%, the Congress vote share is up 12.4 percentage points, while the BRS vote share is down from 46.9% to 38.8%.

    The counting of votes will take place on 3 December. While the final verdict will only be known on Sunday, the ABP News-CVoter exit poll can give you a sense of which way the wind appears to be blowing.

    Methodology:

    The current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on the polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all
    confirmed voters. 
    Survey date: November 7-30, 2023
    Sample size – Rajasthan: 34,690; MP: 45,521; Chhattisgarh: 22,656; Telangana: 19,791; Mizoram: 8,781
    LS Seats Covered: 25 in Rajasthan; 29 in MP; 11 in Chhattisgarh; 1 in Mizoram; 17 in Telangana
    VS Seats Covered: 199 in Rajasthan; 230 in MP; 90 in Chhattisgarh; 40 in Mizoram; 119 in Telangana
    Margin Of Error (macro level): +/- 3% 
    Margin Of Error (micro Level): .+_/_- 5% 
    Confidence Level: 95%

  • ABP News-CVoter survey: Close fight in all 5 States, but voters’ choice of CMs clear

    ABP News-CVoter survey: Close fight in all 5 States, but voters’ choice of CMs clear

    Mumbai: The pre-poll survey conducted by ABP News and CVoter has brought to light the public sentiment in the five states heading for elections — Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana. The results are surprising, and the most notable aspect was that a majority of the people in each of these states seem to be looking for a change, indicating a significant wave of anti-incumbency.

    While the final verdict will only be known on 3 December, the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll can give you a sense of which way the wind appears to be blowing.

    Madhya Pradesh: A significant 55.4 per cent respondents in Madhya Pradesh were found to be dissatisfied with Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government. The Congress is pro to win 118-130 seats out of the 230, with a 44.3% vote share, while the BJP might secure 99-111 seats, reflecting a 42.1% vote share.

    Rajasthan: CM Ashok Gehlot’s efforts to break the state’s historical pattern of alternating between BJP and Congress may encounter resistance. The opinion poll indicates that 49.2% of respondents are dissatisfied with his government, though a substantial 45.5% are not seeking change. Both BJP and Congress are projected to increase their vote shares since the last election. However, the BJP seems set for a pronounced victory, potentially securing 114-124 seats out of the total 200 with a 44.8% vote share. The Congress, meanwhile, is projected to win 67-77 seats with 41.7% of the votes.

    Gehlot, however, is still the most favoured CM candidate, with 40.7% of respondents endorsing him. BJP’s Vasundhara Raje stands as the second preference, with 24.7% support, while Congress’s Sachin Pilot garners 10.5% of respondent support.

    Chhattisgarh: The state presents a complex picture, with 48.5% of participants wanting a change, but 44.8% are satisfied with the current government under Bhupesh Baghel. The ruling Congress is projected to win 45-51 seats in the 90-seat assembly with a 44.8% vote share. The BJP trails with a projected 42.7% vote share and an estimated 36-42 seats. Baghel is favoured as CM by 45.8% of the voters, with his nearest rival being the BJP’s Raman Singh.

    Telangana: The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is expected to get a 40.5% vote share, with Congress at a close 39.4%. Asked if they were satisfied with the state government’s performance, 57% of the respondents showed discontent with the KCR rule. Seat projections, however, place BRS slightly ahead with an estimated 49-61 seats, while the Congress is expected to secure 43-55 seats in the 119-seat House. KCR remains a popular choice for the Chief Minister post, with 37% voter support.

    Mizoram: The Mizoram government under Chief Minister Zoramthanga is facing a similar anti-incumbency sentiment, with 50% of the survey respondents seeking new governance. However, his party MNF is likely to win 17-21 seats in the 40-seat assembly, outperforming the Congress that is projected to bag 6-10 seats. The MNF shows a vote share support of 34.7%, against the Congress’ 30.1%. ZPM’s Lalduhoma has emerged as the most favoured candidate for the CM post, with 32.4% of respondent support.

    Methodology: This opinion poll is based on CVoter Pre Poll CATI (MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana) and Face to Face Interview (Mizoram) conducted among 63,516 people aged 18+ statewide, all confirmed voters.

    Survey date: October 9 to November 3

    Sample size – Rajasthan: 17534; MP: 28323; Chhattisgarh: 5782; Telangana: 9631; Mizoram: 2246

    LS Seats Covered – Rajasthan: 25; MP: 29; Chhattisgarh: 11; Telangana: 17; Mizoram: 1

    VS Seats Covered – Rajasthan: 200; MP: 230; Chhattisgarh: 90; Telangana: 119; Mizoram: 40

    Margin Of Error (State Level) .+_/_- 3%

    Margin Of Error (Regional Level): .+_/_- 5%

    Confidence Level: 95%