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Tag: Vincent Letang

  • India’s ad spend estimated at 13.3 per cent by Magna Global Forecasts 2015

    India’s ad spend estimated at 13.3 per cent by Magna Global Forecasts 2015

    MUMBAI: In its latest study of global media owner advertising revenues, covering 73 countries, Magna Global estimates that ad revenues grew by more than 5.5 per cent this year, to reach the half-trillion mark ($512 billion). Advertising sales will grow by more 4.8 per cent in 2015 to reach $536 billion.

    Some of the most significant revisions in the 2015 forecasts are found among BRIC markets. China and Brazil advertising revenues are still predicted to grow by a decent amount (+8.6 per cent and +5.9 per cent, respectively) although two to three points below previous expectations. Russia is the single biggest negative revision, due to the combination of declining energy prices and the partial withdrawal of Western investors amidst geopolitical tensions; the 2015 advertising growth forecast is cut from 7.0 per cent to 0.8 per cent.

    India will, thus, become the most dynamic among the four BRICs, with an expected ad spend growth of +13.3 per cent following a similar pace of 2014 (+13.2 per cent).

    The general elections that took place in the first part of the year generated massive incremental spend. The outcome of the election, bringing a new BJP-led Government to power, improved business and consumer confidence, is what prompts ad growth forecast in the coming year. The new government is also committed to invest billions in order to connect millions of rural Indians to broadband internet, in a plan advertised through a recent meeting between the new Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

    Magna Global global forecasting director and author of the report Vincent Letang said, “In 2014, the long-awaited European recovery finally came in time to partly offset a weaker- than-expected growth in the US and the BRICs. In 2015, the lack of non-recurring events, the continued slowdown of the BRICs and the deflationary effects generated by the rise of digital media will inhibit global advertising growth, in a slight disconnect with the positive acceleration in the macro-economic environment.”

    The report highlights that in the APAC, within digital, the fastest growing formats are social (+58.6 per cent growth), followed by video (+37.6 per cent growth) and search (+25.5 per cent growth). Mobile spend on social formats continues to lead the way, and other formats will follow.

    Television remains the dominant format for advertising spend in APAC, and spend will grow by 3.5 per cent this year and represent slightly over 40 per cent of all advertising dollars. Broadcast television continues to dominate the TV landscape, although multi-channel television is gaining share due to slightly higher growth rates, and by 2019 will represent nearly one quarter of TV dollars. Print continues to lose market share, and newspaper and magazines together will represent less than one in five advertising dollars this year. This is down from one third of all spending as recently as 2008.

    APAC will continue to be one of the stronger regional drivers of global advertising spend, although its lead on the global growth rate continues to narrow. Its total share of global ad spend will only increase slightly between this year and 2019, from 29 per cent to just over 30 per cent of total spend.

  • Indian ad revenue to grow by 8.7% in 2013: Magna Global

    MUMBAI: The Indian ad revenue market is projected to grow 8.7 per cent in 2013 with internet leading the growth at 31.2 per cent, says Magna Global’s ‘Global Advertising Forecast Report December 2012’ report.

    As per the report, Indian advertising revenue grew by 2.6 per cent to a total of Rs 334 billion in 2012. The growth was led by Internet which saw a 68.1 per cent growth and Television that saw growth of 4.53 per cent.

    Internet has moved up to third largest media category with 6 per cent market share after television and newspaper.

    “Internet has been the clear beneficiary of decelerating Print. Growth is driven by mobile devices which have leapfrogged PC penetration. Online video is considered more and more by TV driven categories like FMCG and Automobile. Paid social and rich media formats continue to keep the display market invigorated,” the report said.

    It also said that mobile and video advertising is expected to double its revenue while paid search and display will consolidate further. Television will see change in delivery mechanism with the digital foot print increasing to 38 cities. With Government of India opening up Radio stations for private players in 227 cities, the category will see a growth of 4.6 per cent.

    Newspapers, the report believes, will benefit from political advertising due to state elections.

    The Magna Global has also revised its forecast for media owners advertising revenue which is expected to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2013 as opposed to its earlier projection of 4.5 per cent in June this year.

    “This is 1.4 per cent less than our previous forecast published in June 2012 (4.5 per cent). The revision is mostly caused by a slow-down in economic growth and continued economic uncertainty in Europe and the US, as well as the cautionary marketing spend that took place in the second half of this year,” the agency said.

    On a global basis, 2013 will be a seventh consecutive year of decline for newspapers’ ad revenues (3.4 per cent) as fewer emerging markets now record enough growth to offset the rapid decline otherwise observed in developed markets. Magazines will decline by 4.3 per cent, still suffering from the combined pressure of television and the growing targeting capabilities of digital media.

    The report also predicts that television advertising growth will slow down to 2.3 per cent, mostly due to the US market (US television represents about a third of global television: $62 billion in a $202 billion global market). Out-of-home ad sales (including cinema) will increase by 3.4 per cent while Radio will grow by an average 1.5 per cent.

    Digital media revenues will increase by 13.5 per cent. The study said that the PC display format (banners, sponsorship) are now barely growing (6 per cent) as more investment shifts towards online video and mobile-based formats, and Paid Search remains robust (14 per cent).

    Magna Global EVP, director of Global Forecasting and author of the report Vincent Letang said, “Tablets have been the fastest device ever to reach 50 million users in less than three years. As they become more affordable, we are seeing an explosion in the volume and the nature of mobile media usage. Marketers are gradually embracing the new marketing and branding opportunities: mobile advertising already represents $6 billion globally, i.e. 6 per cent of digital advertising and 1 per cent of total advertising. Magna Global is predicting the format to grow to $24 billion by 2017, reaching 14 per cent of global digital advertising and 4 per cent of overall advertising revenues.”

    The study revealed that in 2012, media companies around the world saw their advertising revenues grow by 3.8 per cent to total $479.9 billion (constant USD 2011 basis). This new estimate is slightly lower (-1.0 per cent) than the agency’s previous prediction in June 2012, with most of the difference coming from Western Europe (from -0.2 per cent to -2.8 per cent).

    Amidst slow economic growth and weak advertising demand, the “quadrennial” events of 2012 were a minor driver for advertising expenditure globally, but provided mixed results regionally. The London Olympics were a huge audience success in the US, and the rights-holder NBC maximised monetisation across television and digital platforms, stealing share from direct competitors but increasing national TV spend as a whole. However, in most other markets the event was neutral or even detrimental for television.

    The research company expects more robust advertising growth from 2014, as global economy stabilises, they have slightly reduced their mid-term forecasts. The company now expects 2014 to grow 6.0 per cent (previously 6.3 per cent) and 2015 by 4.9 per cent (previously 5.3 per cent). “Slowing-down factors are still at work however. Among them the switch to digital and the deflationary pressure it creates. Our 2012 Magna Global Media Cost Study showed that cost-per-thousand impressions (CPMs) are on average $39 in newspapers and $21 in magazines, across the 40 markets analysed. That’s more than television costs and five times more than online display.”

    Meanwhile online advertising is becoming cheaper still as programmatic buying is developing. A recent Magna Global study forecast that 43 per cent of total online display will be traded through programmatic mechanisms (or exchanges) in the US by 2017. At the same time expensive premium formats like online video are starting to reduce their premium and align their CPMs with those of broadcast TV.

    A deflationary digital media space means that, as marketers switch budgets from traditional media towards digital media to follow their consumers, they also take advantage of a media mix that comes cheaper. And unless they find themselves in a growing or highly competitive market, they are not likely to use the savings to increase the advertising pressure or share of voice. That mechanism is very much at work in the developed world and it will gradually affect some of the emerging ad markets over the 2014-2017 period, as digital media reaches a 20 per cent market share or more and programmatic buying tools become widespread, the company report stated.