Mumbai: BJP-led NDA is headed for a historic mandate in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and is on course to achieve PM Modi’s “400 paar” target, according to News18’s Mega Opinion Poll.
According to the opinion poll, India’s biggest such survey, the NDA is set to win 411 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha with BJP alone clinching a record 350 seats. The remaining NDA constituents, including JD(U) and TDP, will win 61 seats.
The survey indicates that the BJP-led NDA will sweep the Hindi heartland (with 77 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 28 in Madhya Pradesh, 10 in Chhattisgarh, 38 in Bihar, and 12 in Jharkhand) and Karnataka (25). It will also likely see a sharp rise in numbers in Odisha (13), West Bengal (25), Telangana (8), and Andhra Pradesh (18). The ruling alliance is also likely to bag all 26 seats in PM Modi’s home state Gujarat.
The NDA is also expected to spring surprises in Tamil Nadu (5) and Kerala (2), the two states where it is working overtime to make its presence felt.
The opinion poll has predicted that the opposition bloc INDIA, a united front comprising major non-BJP parties including the Congress, will win a combined 105 seats in the lower house. The Congress may end up with just 49, which would be its second-worst performance in Lok Sabha polls after its historic low of 44 in 2014.
‘Others’, including the AIADMK, BSP, BRS, BJD, YSRCP, etc, could together net about 27 seats, according to the findings.
The NDA will collectively secure nearly half of the total votes cast, the opinion poll has predicted.
State-wise opinion poll results:
Uttar Pradesh
The BJP-led NDA is set to sweep the most crucial political state, winning a record 77 out of the 80 seats, according to the opinion poll projections.
The INDIA alliance comprising Samajwadi Party and Congress will only manage 2 seats while the Mayawati-led BSP, which is contesting on its own, is expected to win just one, the survey said.
Moreover, according to the projections, NDA is likely to post an impressive vote share of 57 per cent in Uttar Pradesh while the SP-Cong alliance will get 26 per cent of the votes.
If the predictions hold, this will be BJP’s best performance in UP so far. In 2014, the BJP had won a record 71 seats in UP while its Apna Dal (S) ally had won 2.
In 2019, the seat share had dropped marginally, with BJP winning 62 seats and Apna Dal (S) winning 2.
Bihar
In Bihar, the BJP-JD(U) alliance is projected to bag 38 out of the 40 seats in the state while the INDIA bloc – comprising RJD, Congress and other parties – is expected to win just 2 seats. The forecast is similar to the 2019 results when the NDA won 39 out of the 40 seats in the state.
The opinion polls show that Nitish Kumar’s re-entry into the NDA fold earlier this year will significantly boost the BJP-led alliance’s prospects in the state. Last time too, BJP and JD(U) fought the Lok Sabha alliance together. However, Nitish later walked out of the NDA alliance and formed a fresh state government with Congress and RJD.
In terms of vote share, the NDA alliance is projected to bag 58 per cent of the votes while the INDIA bloc will only manage 28 per cent of the votes, according to the opinion poll.
Tamil Nadu
In the southern state, the DMK-Congress alliance is expected to win 30 out of the 39 seats – a slight dip from its 2019 performance, the opinion poll has predicted.
Notably, the BJP, which is still to ally with the state, is expected to win 5 seats, the opinion poll said.
If the predictions hold, the results will come as a shot in the arm for BJP which is trying hard to expand its base in the south, a region where it has found little luck in the past.
The DMK-Congress alliance is projected to win 51 per cent of the votes, according to the opinion poll.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the DMK-Congress alliance had swept the general election in Tamil Nadu, winning 38 out of the 39 seats. The AIADMK managed to win just 1.
Madhya Pradesh
In the Hindi heartland state, the BJP is predicted to repeat its 2019 performance, winning 28 out of the 29 seats, according to the opinion poll.
Congress, meanwhile, is expected to win just 1 seat.
In 2019 too, the BJP won all but 1 seat in the state since the Congress managed to hold on to Chhindwara, the bastion of Kamal Nath, which is currently held by his son Nakul Nath.
According to the opinion poll, BJP is expected to win 55 per cent of the votes while Congress is likely to get 38 per cent.
Kerala
According to the opinion poll, the Congress-led UDF is expected to win 14 out of the 20 seats in Kerala while the ruling LDF is expected to get 4.
In 2019, UDF registered a landslide victory in Kerala, winning 18 seats while the CM Pinaryi Vijayan-led alliance won just 2.
The opinion poll projected that INDIA bloc would get 47 per cent of the vote share while LDF would win just over 32 per cent of the votes.
Punjab
The opinion poll has thrown up interesting projections in Punjab, which is set to witness a multi-cornered contest.
Congress, which was ousted from power in 2022, is projected to win 7 out of 13 seats in the state while the BJP-led NDA is expected to bag 3. The AAP, which secured a landslide victory in the state election, is expected to win just 1 seat in a repeat of its 2019 performance, the opinion poll has said.
SAD, too, is expected to win 2 seats. So far, SAD has not announced an alliance with BJP despite buzz that it may return to the NDA fold.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress had won 8 seats in Punjab while the SAD-BJP combine bagged 4.
BJP clean sweep in Delhi, Haryana and Himachal
In Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, the BJP is set for a clean sweep yet again, the opinion poll has predicted.
According to the opinion poll, the BJP is set to win all 10 seats in Haryana, 7 seats in Delhi and 4 in Himachal Pradesh. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections too, the BJP had swept the three northern states.
In 2014, the BJP had won all 7 constituencies in Delhi and 4 in Himachal Pradesh. However, in Haryana, it had won 7.
Notably, the opinion poll had predicted that BJP will clock an impressive vote share of 67 per cent in Himachal Pradesh.
The Congress government in Himachal Pradesh is already on edge after cross-voting by its MLAs in the recent Rajya Sabha polls.
Maharashtra
The opinion poll has predicted yet another sweep for the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP ruling combine in Maharashtra. According to the survey, the NDA will win 41 of the state’s 48 seats while the opposition bloc INDIA will bag just 7.
In Maharashtra, Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction and Uddhav Thackerary’s Shiv Sena (UBT) group are the constituents of the INDIA bloc.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, the BJP won 23 of the 48 seats in the state while its then ally Shiv Sena secured 18 seats.
The NCP won 4 seats while Congress managed to bag just 1.
Since the previous general election, the political equations in Maharashtra have changed significantly with two major parties witnessing a vertical split.
Both Shiv Sena and NCP, which were part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government with Congress, have suffered internal split after the rebellion led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and deputy CM Ajit Pawar respectively.
Shinde and Pawar are now part of the NDA government in the state after the fall of the Uddhav Thackeray led government.
West Bengal
The opinion poll has predicted a big jump in BJP’s seat tally in West Bengal and a significant decline for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.
According to the projections, the BJP is expected to win 25 out of the 42 seats in the state while TMC is expected to bag 17. The Congress is likely to draw a blank, it said.
Interestingly, both BJP and TMC are expected to draw even vis-a-vis vote share, each cornering 42 per cent of the votes.
If the predictions hold true, it will be a major boost for BJP which has emerged as a formidable challenger for TMC in Bengal.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, West Bengal witnessed a tough contest between TMC and BJP.
The Mamata Banerjee-led party won 22 of the 42 seats in 2019. BJP saw a huge bump in its seat share, winning 18 seats in 2019 compared to just 2 in 2014.
The Congress managed to win just 2 seats in West Bengal while the CPM-led Left, which was once a dominant political force, drew a blank.
This year, TMC and Congress are contesting the elections separately after they failed to reach a seat-sharing deal in the state.
Karnataka
According to the opinion poll, the NDA is set to repeat its 2019 performance in the key southern state, winning 25 out of the 28 seats in the state.
The Congress is expected to bag just 3.
The BJP is contesting the elections this time in alliance with JD(S).
In Karnataka, the only southern state where BJP holds sway, the saffron party won 25 out of the 28 seats in the previous Lok Sabha polls. The Congress and JD(S), who fought the polls together, managed to win just one seat apiece.
The results were a big boost for BJP since the party had lost the state to Congress-JD(S) alliance in the 2018 assembly polls.
It later came to power in Karnataka after the collapse of the Congress-JD(S) government but lost the 2023 elections in May.
Gujarat
According to the opinion poll, the BJP is expected to see yet another clean sweep in Gujarat, winning 26/26 seats.
In the previous two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP completely swept the polls in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah.
The saffron party won all 26 seats in both 2014 and 2019, reducing the Congress to zero. The BJP also secured an impressive vote share of 62.2 per cent, nearly twice of Congress’s 32 per cent.
Andhra Pradesh
The opinion poll has thrown up interesting projections in Andhra Pradesh, giving the recently formed BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance a big boost.
According to the projections, the BJP-led NDA alliance will win 18 out of the 25 seats in Andhra.
It said that the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress, which won a record mandate in 2019, will bag just 7 seats in 2024.
BJP, TDP and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena recently formed an alliance for the Lok Sabha polls. Under the seat-sharing arrangement, TDP will contest 17 seats, BJP 6 and Jana Sena 2.
In 2019, YSR Congress swept the elections in Andhra Pradesh, winning 22 of the state’s 25 seats.
Reddy’s party also won the assembly elections that were held along with the Lok Sabha polls.
The Chandrababu Naidu-led TDP won just 3 seats, a decline of 12 compared to 2014.
Telangana
The opinion poll has predicted impressive gains for BJP in Telangana, saying that the party would win 8 out of 17 seats. The ruling Congress in the state is expected to bag 6 while BRS’s seat share will be reduced to just 2, the poll has predicted.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the K Chandrashekar Rao-led TRS had won 9 out of the 17 seats in Telangana while BJP managed to bag 4.
The Congress and AIMIM won 3 and 1 seats respectively.
Rajasthan
According to the opinion poll, the BJP-led NDA is headed for a landslide in Rajasthan yet again, winning all 25 seats in the Hindi heartland state.
The Congress, which lost the assembly elections last year, will again draw a blank, the opinion poll predicted. It said that BJP and allies will corner 61 per cent of the vote share in the state.
In the previous general election, the BJP-led NDA had made a clean sweep in the state, winning all 25 seats. It secured an impressive vote share of 59 per cent.
The Congress drew a blank in Rajasthan for the second time in a row.
Odisha
According to the opinion poll, BJP is set to win 13 seats in Odisha while the ruling BJD is projected to bag 8.
If the predictions hold true, it will be a big shot in the arm for BJP which has been expanding its footprint in the state.
Odisha saw a tough fight between the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD and BJP in the 2019 elections.
While the ruling BJD won 12 out of the 20 seats in the state, the BJP improved its seat share tally from just 1 in 2014 to 8 in 2019.
Moreover, for the 2024 elections, both BJP and BJD are in talks for a possible pre-poll tie-up in the state. If they manage to form an alliance, all 21 seats will fall in NDA’s kitty, according to the opinion poll.
Assembly elections will be held in Odisha along with the Lok Sabha elections.
Jharkhand
According to the opinion poll, the BJP-led NDA is set to repeat its 2019 performance in Jharkhand, winning 12 out of the 14 seats in the state.
The remaining 2 will be shared by INDIA constituents Congress and JMM.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won 12 of the state’s 14 seats while Congress-JMM won one seat apiece.
Of the NDA’s share, the BJP won 11 seats while its ally AJSU won 1.
The state is currently facing political uncertainty after Shibu Soren had to step aside as the chief minister following his arrest in a money laundering case. He was replaced by Champai Soren, who has managed to hold on to power after winning the floor test earlier this year.
Chhattisgarh
The opinion poll has predicted that BJP will improve its seat tally in Chhattisgarh to 10 in 2024 from 9 in 2019.
Last year, the saffron party wrested power from Congress in the tribal-dominated state.
In 2019 elections, the BJP had posted an impressive performance in the Hindi heartland state, winning 9 out of the 11 seats. The Congress won the remaining 2.
The saffron party had posted an impressive performance despite losing the assembly elections in Chhattisgarh just a few months before the general election.
Assam
According to the opinion poll, the BJP is set to secure a sweep in Assam. It predicted 12 out of 14 seats for the saffron party and none for Congress.
Regional parties AIUDF and BPF will win the remaining two seats, the opinion poll said.
During the previous general election, the BJP won 9 out of the 14 seats in the northeastern state while Congress bagged 3. The Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF managed to win just 1.
Uttarakhand
According to the pre-poll survey, BJP will repeat its clean sweep of 2019 and win all 5 seats in Uttarakhand.
It said that the saffron party will secure a massive vote share of 62 per cent, better than its 2019 figures.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, BJP won all 5 seats in the hill state. At 61 per cent, its vote share was nearly double that of the Congress.
