Tag: National Democratic Alliance

  • Bihar Election 2020 – Political ad spend analysis: TAM data

    Bihar Election 2020 – Political ad spend analysis: TAM data

    MUMBAI: The battle for Bihar in 2020 wasn’t just fought on dusty village squares and opposition rallies. It raged across television screens and newspaper columns, with political parties unleashing millions in advertising rupees to woo voters. TAM Media’s advertising expenditure data reveals a lopsided affair: television gobbled up a staggering 93 per cent of all political advertising spend, leaving print media to scrap over a measly 7 per cent.

    The Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the undisputed heavyweight, commanding 38.7 per cent of overall ad insertions—more than double its nearest competitor. On television, where the real money flowed, BJP’s dominance was even more pronounced at 41 per cent of all ad slots. The National Democratic Alliance, its coalition partner, secured 17.4 per cent overall, with an 18.6 per cent share on television.

    Congress, despite its third-place finish in overall spending at 17 per cent, displayed tactical nous in print advertising. The party ranked second in newspapers with 7.1 per cent of insertions as a standalone advertiser, while a Congress-led coalition (Congress-I/RJD/CPI variants) topped print spending at 15.7 per cent—edging past a BJP-led alliance’s 14.1 per cent.Top 5 ad spenders

    Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal United rounded out the top five, with 11.9 per cent and 8.9 per cent of overall insertions respectively. The fragmented opposition was evident in the numbers: 25 other parties collectively managed just 6.1 per cent of ad insertions, with print media seeing an even messier 44.6 per cent split among 15 smaller players.

    But the real story lies in the timing. TAM Media’s week-by-week analysis reveals a campaign that began as a whisper and ended as a roar. For the first six weeks—from early September through early October—political advertising barely registered on television. Print maintained a modest but steady presence during this period, with a slight peak in week three.

    Then came the deluge. From week seven onwards, television advertising exploded in a dramatic crescendo. By week nine (25-31 October), TV ad insertions hit their peak at 42 per cent of the entire campaign’s television spend—a staggering concentration just days before polling. Print advertising followed a similar trajectory, peaking at 31 per cent during the same crucial week nine, though it maintained a more consistent presence throughout the campaign compared to television’s late surge.

    The pattern is unmistakable: parties held their fire until voters’ attention was sharpest, then carpet-bombed the airwaves in the final fortnight. Week ten saw a slight decline as polling day arrived, but by then the damage—or persuasion—was done.

    The data, covering political advertisements across Bihar’s television channels and publications during the election period, paints a clear picture: in Bihar’s ad war, television was the main battleground, BJP brought the biggest guns, and everyone saved their ammunition for a final, frenzied assault on voters’ senses. Welcome to democracy, Bihar-style—where timing is everything and the biggest megaphone usually wins.

  • ABP News-CVoter opinion poll predicts a third term for NDA

    ABP News-CVoter opinion poll predicts a third term for NDA

    Mumbai: An opinion poll conducted by ABP News and CVoter, a significant indicator and the last one ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has revealed interesting insights. The latest opinion poll shows the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in a dominating position, predicting its return for a third term with a comfortable majority — 373 seats out of the total 543. With a vote share of 46.6 per cent, the alliance looks set to strengthen its position compared to the 2019 election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP is projected to secure a significant portion of the NDA’s overall success, with its vote share and seat count increasing since last time.

    Key highlights from the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll    

    Vote & seat shares

    The I.N.D.I.A bloc is expected to win 155 seats, gathering a vote share of 39.8 per cent. In 2019, these parties, not contesting as a bloc, had together garnered 36.6 per cent of the total votes.

    The NDA also shows an increase in its vote share to 46.6 per cent, from 45.1 per cent in 2019, with its seat tally going up to 373 against the majority mark of 272. The BJP remains the dominant force, though some of the allies show slightly reduced contributions.

    State-wise and party-specific highlights

    Tamil Nadu shows a strong performance by the DMK+, which is expected to take 30 out of the total 39 seats, leaving the rest of the 9 seats for the I.N.D.I.A partner Congress.

    Andhra Pradesh sees an NDA (TDP+BJP+JSP) sweep. Though YSRCP is projected to poll 39.9 per cent of the votes, against the NDA’s 46.7 per cent, it won’t manage to win more than five seats. The rest of the 20 seats are likely to go to the NDA.

    Kerala stands out with UDF leading with 43.4 per cent of the votes, in contrast to the NDA’s low support at 21.2 per cent. The ruling LDF is projected to corner 30.9 per cent of the votes, but all 20 seats are likely to be going to the Congress-led UDF.

    West Bengal shows TMC’s dominance with 43.5 per cent of the vote, surpassing the NDA’s 41.9 per cent. In terms of seats, the TMC and NDA are standing neck and neck, expecting to win 20 seats each in the 42-member house, leaving two for the Congress.

    Telangana appears to be a divided vote. While the I.N.D.I.A bloc is projected to corner 10 seats, NDA is likely to get 5, leaving one each for BRS and AIMIM.  

    Assam, the Northeast state with the highest number of seats (14), is projected to stay with the NDA, giving 12 seats to the ruling alliance.

    Odisha showcases BJD in a competitive position with a 35.6 per cent vote share against the NDA’s 40.9 per cent. In terms of seat count, the BJP is expected to bag 13 seats and the BJD 7, leaving 1 for the Congress in the 23-member House.

    In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, which saw state elections late last year, and Gujarat, it’s BJP all the way, according to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll. The BJP-led alliance is projected to win all 25 seats in the desert state, all 26 in Gujarat, 28 out of the 29 seats in MP, and 10 out of the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. In Karnataka too, the NDA is projected to win 23 out of the 28 seats.  

    Punjab highlights a fragmented voter base with the ruling AAP holding 27 per cent vote share and the Congress 30.4 per cent. In terms of seats, the Congress is projected to win 7 and AAP 4, leaving 2 for the NDA.

    In Bihar, the NDA projection is strong at 50.8 per cent, and is projected to sweep the state with 33 seats, leaving only 7 for the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

    Uttar Pradesh, a key battleground state, is all set to go with the BJP, as the ABP-CVoter opinion poll projects 73 seats out of the total 80 seats for the NDA. Regional players SP+ command a significant 38.1 per cent in the state, but will manage to get only seven seats.

    Maharashtra anticipates a relatively even split between I.N.D.I.A (18 seats) and NDA (30 seats), indicating a major battleground for both coalitions.

    Still short of ‘Mission 400’, but NDA poised for a return

    As far as the overall projection is concerned, the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll shows, the NDA is likely to get 46.6 per cent votes, up from 45.1 in 2019. In contrast, the opposition bloc of I.N.D.I.A is expected to get a vote share of 39.8 per cent. In 2019, these parties, not contesting as a bloc, had garnered 36.6 per cent of the total votes.  

    Though the rise in I.N.D.I.A seats hints at an improving coalition strategy, which may impact future legislative dynamics, the NDA sustains its majority, showcasing continued voter confidence.

    The Congress party, leading the I.N.D.I.A bloc shows only a marginal growth in its prospects. The party’s total vote share, in fact, is projected to dip slightly from 19.5 per cent in 2019 to 19.2 per cent in 2024, but its seat count is expected to go up from 52 to 65. The bloc’s performance is strong in certain states like Tamil Nadu, due to alliances with strong regional parties like the DMK, but nationally it struggles to compete with the BJP’s appeal.

    Methodology

    The survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18 plus adults statewide, all confirmed voters.
    Sample size: 57566
    Survey date: 11 March to 12 April, 2024
    LS seats covered: 543
    Margin Of Error (regional level): .+_/_- five per cent 
    Confidence Level: 95 per cent

  • If Lok Sabha polls are held now, Modi led NDA will witness landslide victory: India TV opinion polls

    If Lok Sabha polls are held now, Modi led NDA will witness landslide victory: India TV opinion polls

    New Delhi: India TV has predicted that if Lok Sabha elections are held now, prime minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) can register a landslide victory on 362 Lok sabha seats out of a total of 543. The prediction is made following a nationwide opinion poll by India TV-Matrize News Communication.

    The results of the survey titled ‘Desh Ki Awaaz’ (Voice of the Nation) were telecast on India’s No. 1 news channel India TV on July 29 at 4 p.m.

    According to the survey, Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is projected to win only 97 lok sabha seats if general elections are held now, with ‘Others’ including small, regional parties and independents projected to win 84 seats.

    The survey says, NDA is projected to get 41 per cent votes, UPA may get 28 per cent and others 31 per cent votes, if elections are held now.

    Asked about their first choice for Prime Minister, 48 per cent said they would want to see Narendra Modi again as PM. Modi was followed by Rahul Gandhi with 11 percent, Mamata Banerjee 8 percent,  Sonia Gandhi 7 percent,  Mayawati 6 percent, Sharad Pawar 6 percent, and Arvind Kejriwal 5 percent, Nitish Kumar 4 percent, K Chandrashekhar Rao 3 pcercent and Priyanka Vadra with 2 percent.

    Asked who is the strongest political opponent of Modi, 23 percent respondents favoured Rahul Gandhi, while 19 percent opted for Arvind Kejriwal. 11 per cent favoured Mamata Banerjee, and 8 per cent  each opted for Nitish Kumar and Sonia Gandhi.

    The India TV-Matrize Opinion Poll ‘Desh Ki Awaaz’ was conducted from 11-24 July, in 136 out of 543 parliamentary constituencies of India with a sample size of 34,000 respondents, among whom 19,830 were males and 14,170 were females.

    The state-wise break-up given in the survey makes interesting reading.

    In the most populous state Uttar Pradesh, NDA may win a whopping 76 out of 80 Lok sabha seats, with UPA and others projected to win only two seats each. In Bihar, NDA may win 35 out of a total of 40 seats, and the UPA may win five seats.

    In Maharashtra, NDA may win 37 out of a total 48 lok sabha seats, while non-BJP opposition may win the remaining 11 seats.

    The ruling DMK-led UPA in Tamil Nadu is projected to win 38 out of a total of 39 seats, leaving the lone remaining seat to NDA. In LDF-ruled Kerala, the non-BJP opposition can sweep all the 20 Lok sabha seats in the state.

    In TMC-ruled West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is projected to win 26 out of a total of 42 seats, with NDA projected to win 14 and UPA two.

    According to state-wise break up given by the survey agency, Gujarat has total 26 seats out of which NDA can get 26 and UPA 0. While in Maharashtra, there are total 48 seats, out of which NDA can get 37 and UPA 11.

    Goa has total 2 and both will be named to NDA. Rajasthan has total 25 and NDA will get all 25. Madhya Pradesh has total 29, NDA can get 28 and UPA may get 1.  Chhattisgarh has total 11 out of which NDA may get 10 and UPA 1.

    Below is the seat wise prediction for all the states.

    West Bengal: Total 42, NDA 14, UPA 2, Others (TMC) 26.

    Bihar: Total 40, NDA 35, UPA 5.

    Jharkhand: Total 14, NDA 13, UPA 1.

    Odisha:Total 21, NDA 11, UPA 2, Others (includes BJD) 8.

    Himachal Pradesh: Total 4. NDA 4.

    Punjab: Total 13, NDA 3, UPA 3, Others (includes AAP) 7.

    Haryana: Total 10, NDA 9, UPA 1.

    Jammu & Kashmir, Laddakh: Total 6, NDA 3, UPA 0, Others 3.

    Delhi: Total 7, NDA 7, UPA 0, Others 0.

    Uttar Pradesh: Total 80, NDA 76, UPA 2, Others 2.

    Uttarakhand: Total 5, NDA 5, UPA 0.

    Telangana: Total 17, NDA 6, UPA 2, Others (includes TRS) 9.

    Andhra: Total 25, NDA 0, UPA 0, Others (includes YSRCongress) 25.

    Karnataka: Total 28, NDA 23, UPA 4 Others 1.

    Tamil Nadu: Total 39, NDA 1, UPA(includes DMK) 38, Others 0.

    Kerala: Total 20, NDA 0, UPA 20, Others 0.

    Tripura: Total 2, NDA 2, UPA 0.

    Assam: Total 14, NDA 11, UPA 1, Others 2.

    NE states: Total 9, NDA 7, UPA 1, Others 1.

    Rest UTs:Total 6, NDA 4, UPA 2, Others 0.

  • Modi uses Twitter to launch song to mark two years of his government

    Modi uses Twitter to launch song to mark two years of his government

    NEW DELHI: A song dedicated to the nation on the theme of ‘Mera Desh Badal Rahaa, Agey Bardh Rahaa Hai’ (My country is changing, moving ahead) has released to mark the second anniversary of the Narendra Modi government.

    The song was first released by the Prime Minister on his twitter handle and is available here https://soundcloud.com/narendramodi/mera-desh-badal-raha-hai-aage-badh-raha-hai.

    The lyric of the 2:49 minute song is about various projects initiated by the National Democratic Alliance government. The song mentions government schemes like  Jan Dhan Yojana, Beti Bacho, Beti Padhao and Fasal Beema Yojana to show how they have brought an improvement in the condition of the people.

    Adman Piyush Pandey was also involved in production of the song.

    There are plans to launch a video of the song, which is currently available only on audio.

    The tweet in Hindi said ‘Mera Desh Badal Rahaa, Agey Bardh Rahaa Hai’ 
    #TransformingIndia”मेरा देश बदल रहा है…आगे बढ़ रहा है”

  • Modi uses Twitter to launch song to mark two years of his government

    Modi uses Twitter to launch song to mark two years of his government

    NEW DELHI: A song dedicated to the nation on the theme of ‘Mera Desh Badal Rahaa, Agey Bardh Rahaa Hai’ (My country is changing, moving ahead) has released to mark the second anniversary of the Narendra Modi government.

    The song was first released by the Prime Minister on his twitter handle and is available here https://soundcloud.com/narendramodi/mera-desh-badal-raha-hai-aage-badh-raha-hai.

    The lyric of the 2:49 minute song is about various projects initiated by the National Democratic Alliance government. The song mentions government schemes like  Jan Dhan Yojana, Beti Bacho, Beti Padhao and Fasal Beema Yojana to show how they have brought an improvement in the condition of the people.

    Adman Piyush Pandey was also involved in production of the song.

    There are plans to launch a video of the song, which is currently available only on audio.

    The tweet in Hindi said ‘Mera Desh Badal Rahaa, Agey Bardh Rahaa Hai’ 
    #TransformingIndia”मेरा देश बदल रहा है…आगे बढ़ रहा है”