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Tag: Conflict

  • Global ad market to be hit by trade wars, tariffs, and turmoil, says Warc

    Global ad market to be hit by trade wars, tariffs, and turmoil, says Warc

    MUMBAI: The global advertising industry is set for a bumpier ride than expected thanks to Donald Trump’s recent trade pronouncements and the retaliatory measures by the countries  affected and the continuing conflicts in certain parts of the world. 

    With this background in mind, Warc has slashed its ad spend growth forecast for 2025 by almost a percentage point to 6.7 per cent. The revised estimate pegs global ad spend at $1.15 trillion, down $20 billion over the next two years, thanks to economic stagnation, trade tariffs, and regulatory upheaval. The outlook for 2026 has also taken a hit, with growth now expected at 6.3 per cent.

    Warc director of data, intelligence & forecasting James Mcdonald put it bluntly: “The ad market is feeling the squeeze from tariffs, economic stagnation, and regulatory crackdowns, prompting brands to rein in budgets. Despite the volatility, digital ad spend remains robust, with Alphabet, Amazon and Meta set to control over half the market by 2029.”

    Automakers are slamming the brakes on ad budgets, cutting spend by 7.4 per cent as manufacturing stalls and supply chain woes deepen. Key players like General Motors and Ford have already slashed marketing budgets, focusing more on digital and social channels over traditional TV spots. Meanwhile, tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese car imports threaten to worsen the crunch, with 40.7 per cent of the industry at risk, per the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.

    Retailers, too, are tightening belts. The sector, the biggest spender in global advertising, is set to cut ad budgets by 5.3 per cent this year, as rising costs and trade barriers squeeze margins. Chinese disruptors like Temu and Shein, which fuelled a retail ad boom in 2024, are expected to dial back their spending due to new trade restrictions.

    Tech brands, once the ad market’s golden child, are now facing a slowdown. The sector’s projected growth has been halved, down to 6.2 per cent, as new tariffs on semiconductors hit supply chains. Warc had previously forecast a 13.9 per cent jump in tech ad spend—now it’s looking at a much cooler landscape.

    Despite the broader slowdown, digital advertising remains a money-spinner. Search advertising will grab 21.7 per cent of global ad spend this year, rising eight per cent to $250 billion. Social media, the biggest single advertising channel, will rake in $286.2 billion—almost a quarter of all ad spend—powered by TikTok (+23.6 per cent), Instagram (+17 per cent) and Facebook (+8.6 per cent).

    Retail media, the rising star, is set to be one of the fastest-growing advertising formats, with a 15.4 per cent surge this year. However, trade barriers could dent ad receipts from consumer goods brands that rely on global supply chains. 

    Yet, there are storm clouds ahead. The EU has slapped Apple and Google with Digital Markets Act violations, putting billions in ad revenues at risk. UK courts could soon allow consumers to opt out of personalised ads, threatening the backbone of search and social media advertising.

    The US remains a bright spot, with ad spend expected to rise 5.7 per cent to $451.9 billion. But that’s a far cry from the 13.1 per cent growth seen in 2024. Warc predicts a stronger 2026, with a 6.5 per cent uptick, thanks to the FIFA World Cup and US midterms.

    China’s ad market, however, is losing steam. Growth is slowing to 5.3 per cent this year to $205.5 billion – compared to growth of 7.1 per cent recorded in 2024 – as weak domestic demand takes its toll. This year’s growth rate equates to a 3.5 per cent rise in real terms.

    Europe’s major economies, meanwhile, are teetering. The UK’s ad market is still growing—up 7.1 per cent to $52.6 billion—but inflation-adjusted figures tell a less rosy story, with real growth at just 5 per cent. Germany, bogged down by economic sluggishness, is heading for a 2.1 per cent decline in ad spend, while Japan is bracing for a 2 per cent drop. Japan’s market is set to grow 3.3 per cent this year when measured in local currency, demonstrating the current strength of the greenback against the yen.

    Trade wars, tariffs, and economic turmoil are reshaping global ad spend, forcing brands to rethink strategies. The digital giants remain dominant, but regulatory pressures are mounting. In a market full of uncertainty, one thing’s clear—advertisers will need to stay agile to keep ahead of the curve.

  • The Hollywood Conflict: Streaming vs Theatrical

    The Hollywood Conflict: Streaming vs Theatrical

    Los Angeles: Any screenwriter in Hollywood will tell you that screenplays are all about conflict. Conflict should be in every scene, in every act, and on every page. The more layered, the better. So, when actor Scarlett Johansson, star of the Marvel superhero movie Black Widow sued the Walt Disney Company, alleging that the company breached her contract, she added yet another layer of conflict to the streaming vs. theatrical battle currently being waged in the movie industry due, in large part, to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Johansson argued that when Disney offered Black Widow on streaming at the same time it played in theatres, it breached her contract, and that this dual release reduced her compensation, which was based partly on box office receipts from what was supposed to be an exclusive run in theatres. While Disney argued that the release of the movie on its streaming platform had significantly enhanced Johansson’s ability to earn additional compensation. This case will surely be closely followed by industry insiders since it publicly begins a debate on how talent and filmmakers should be compensated as the industry business models shift between streaming and theatrical.

    In early 2020, as Covid-19 began its deadly march, movie theatres started getting shut and the box office plummeted 80 per cent. At the same time, over-the-top (OTT) media services grew by 37 per cent. The popularity of these platforms became attractive to subscribers because of instant and limitless access to high-quality content at a time many became insulated at home due to the pandemic.

    Popular OTT providers include Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, Disney+, HBO Max among many others. In addition, many studios began releasing films directly to consumers via premium video on demand (PVOD) or on their own streaming platforms.

    With the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines, the United States and countries worldwide are now looking to emerge from the grip of the coronavirus pandemic. Movie theatres are reopening with certain mask-wearing and social distancing mandates. Around 85 per cent of the US cinemas have reopened, according to Comscore, which is the highest percentage since March 2020. Yet, recent theatrical openings have fallen short of expectations.

    Only Black Widow ($80 million), F9: The Fast Saga ($70 million) and A Quiet Place Part II ($47 million) came close to the opening weekend hauls that would have been expected prior to the pandemic and still fell short of their expected blockbuster prospects in that they were all sequels in popular, pre-existing franchises.

    In addition, all three movies had disappointing second-weekend drops. Black Widow saw a 68 per cent tumble in its second weekend, the worst-ever for a Disney released Marvel title, F9: The Fast Saga had a 67 per cent decline while A Quiet Place Part II saw a 59 per cent drop.

    Hollywood has now been dealt a new headache with the spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant which may have played a role in recent disappointing box office takes. In a poll conducted 1 August by The Hollywood Reporter, where prospective viewers were asked if they were comfortable going to a movie theatre, across all demographics, percentages were down. In all movie-goers, the poll came in at 70 per cent down from 81 per cent on 11 July. This drop, in less than three weeks, reveals just how the Covid-19 pandemic is making it virtually impossible for studios and movie theatres to formulate a business plan.

    As far as the debate on which is more profitable, theatrical or streaming, the answer is complicated and fluid. Not only do production and marketing costs need to be considered but also the ever-changing landscape ushered in by the coronavirus pandemic and its potentially far-reaching effects. When this dark pandemic cloud has lifted, will the consumers be ready for dinner and popcorn movie nights out again, or has being comfy at homes streaming movies with the kids taken a hold? Maybe a bit of both but to what degree?

    In Screenrant, Stephen M. Colbert makes the case that movie ticket sales were drying up pre- pandemic while streaming is becoming more profitable, especially for studios with their own streaming service. In addition, studios share around half of their box office with theatres, whereas they get to keep the lion’s share of streaming revenue for their own content on their own platform.

    In Investopedia, Dina Zipin observes that major Hollywood studios can bring in $250 million in profits from a single film, while a respected cable network like HBO can make money off a huge hit like Game of Thrones, which costs millions to shoot. Since unsuccessful projects and financial flops are par for the course, there is no guarantee which shows or potential franchise will be the year’s great moneymaker.

    A case study of the hybrid streaming/theatrical model could be illustrated by A24’s release of the medieval fantasy, The Green Knight starring Dev Patel. A24 pumped up the social media buzz about the movie which also benefited from Patel as a huge draw as a leading man. A24 chose not to put it on PVOD but waited until the perfect time as restrictions eased to release the film in theatres. Then, in a new mixed release strategy, slated a one-day streaming event. The film opened No. 2 in theatres on 30 July 30, right behind Jungle Cruise, outperforming expectations with close to a $7 million weekend take. The data from the one-day streaming event on 18 August has not yet been released.

    With FDA granting full approval of the Pfizer vaccine and with increased calls for proof of vaccinations by employers, as well as by restaurants, gyms, bars, concerts, and sporting venues and movie theatres, it adds a new layer in our return to “normal.” The page on how talent, studios, streaming services, movie studios, and others in the industry will deal with this is yet to be written.

  • Times Network releases ‘Conflict’, a special documentary on COVID -19

    Times Network releases ‘Conflict’, a special documentary on COVID -19

    Times Network, India's premium broadcast network, releases ‘Conflict’, a special two-part documentary chronicling stories of the lives of frontline warriors who are balancing their commitment to their duty with the love for their families and professionals from the service sector, whose jobs have been impounded due to the enormous impact of COVID-19. Shot cautiously across 4 cities during the lockdown, both documentaries narrate the moving stories of hardships faced by various professionals for the first time ever on Indian Television. 

     Honouring the frontline workers, who are committed to tackling the virus outbreak with their selfless services and spirited fight against COVID -19, the first part of the documentary ‘Conflict: Life At The Red Line’ will telecast on July 18 at 7pm on TIMES NOW, TIMES NOW WORLD, Mirror Now and LIVE webcast on timesnownownews.com. The documentary is a succinct account on the how frontline workers are treading the pandemic and depicts their daily challenges, scrutiny from the public and balancing their commitment to the duties conflicting with their love for their families. This documentary will feature Dr. Rahul Tambe, Senior Consultant, Internal Medicine, Nanavati Hostpital – Mumbai,  Dr. Shweta Jaitly, Senior Resident, Dept. of ENT – VMMC & Safdarjung Hospital – Delhi, Devyani Badwe, Staff Nurse, Nanavati Hospital – Mumbai, Snehal Sawant, Staff Nurse, Nanavati Hospital – Mumbai, Nakul Mangal, Emergency Medical Technician, Max Hospital – Delhi, Shibani Sardar, Janitor, Medica Superspecialtiy Hospital – Kolkata and Akash, an Indian student in France, who was amongst the initial COVID-19 positive patient in India. 

    Vivek Srivastava, President – Strategy and Business Head, News and English Entertainment Cluster, Times Network said, “A global crisis unlike any, COVID-19 outbreak continues to disrupt the lives and upend the livelihoods of many. It is therefore essential to reimagine and reset our lives and businesses across industries to navigate the pandemic. Chronicling the impact of the pandemic on the lives of a multitude of professionals, the documentary series showcases a compelling narrative of courage and perseverance in our collective fight against the virus. We believe, these stories of resilience are critical to be told as it captures the perspectives of some of the most valiant lives braving the consequences of this pandemic”.  

    The second part documentary, ‘Conflict: Touch Me Not’ slated to air in August, offers a glance into the lives of service professionals, whose livelihood is depended on human contact. The documentary takes viewers through the alleyways of Mumbai’s Kammatipura, home to thousands of sex workers, to provide a glimpse into their lives, which has come to a standstill during the lockdown and their daily struggle to provide for their children without an active income. The documentary also features compelling stories of a Mehendi artist from Delhi and makeup artist from Mumbai, who are fearing the worst as the negation of human touch, could mean an uncertain future.