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Tag: ACT Broadband

  • November 2015: ACT, Airtel lead subscriber additions for wireline broadband in India

    November 2015: ACT, Airtel lead subscriber additions for wireline broadband in India

    BENGALURU: Until 30 October, 2015 (Oct-15), ACT Broadband was leading in wireline broadband internet subscriber additions in India. November 2015 numbers released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) indicate that as on 30 November, 2015 (Nov-15), both ACT and Bharti Airtel have added 2.3 lakh subscribers (subject to a granularity of 10,000) each in the period between 31 December, 2014, hence 1 January, 2015 (Dec-14,) and Nov-15. In terms of wireline internet subscription numbers, Airtel had 16.4 lakh subscribers as on Nov-15, almost double the 8.4 lakh subscribers that ACT Broadband had.

    The top five players in India in the wireline broadband internet space in pecking order are the public sector Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), Bharti Airtel Limited (Airtel), public sector Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL), Atria Convergence Technologies Private Limited (ACT, ACT Broadband) and You Broadband (You BB). Among these five, only BSNL and Airtel can be termed national players at present. BSNL, Airtel and MTNL also provide wireline and mobile services while Airtel also has a direct to home (DTH) segment. ACT started off as an MSO with operations concentrated in a few major cities and towns located mainly in South India. It started internet services (ACT Broadband) a little later and has grown its broadband internet subscriber base over time, to the extent that it is quite likely the biggest private wireline broadband player in South India. You BB offers broadband operations in a few cities in Maharashtra, Gujarat the NCR region Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. 

    Overall, November 2015 saw 140,000 wireline subscriber additions, of which 30,000 were added by Airtel and 20,000 by ACT; 10,000 by You Broadband, while the public sector behemoth BSNL saw a decline of 10,000 subscribers. MTNL did not have any new additions, taking the contribution of the top five wireline broadband players to 50,000 (or 35.57 per cent of overall additions) during Nov-15.

    Note: (1) 100,00,000 = 100 Lakh = 10 million = 1 crore
    (2) TRAI reports indicate data in millions of numbers up to 2 decimal places. Hence it is assumed in this report that a figure of 0.47 million (4.7 lakh) subscribers for You BB for July-2015 would be granular to the nearest 10,000. While percentages perforce have been mentioned up to two decimal places, the accuracy may vary, depending upon the exact number.
    (3) Industry sources say that TRAI numbers in the case of ACT for May-2015 are incorrect at 0.66 million and the correct number would be 0.693 million. This report considers the number as 6.93 lakh or 0.693 million.
    (4) MSOs have a number of subsidiaries and alliances, hence broadband numbers are split as applicable. The consolidated subscription numbers of these entities could be larger. Hathway is a case in point.
    (5) Ortel’s numbers for Q3-2015 have been estimated from the numbers released by it for Q1-2015, Q2-2015, Q4-2015 and FY-2015.
    (6) The term ‘operating revenue’ in this report indicates ‘total income from operations.’

    Please refer to Fig 1 below. 

    Over an 11 month period, the subscriber numbers share of the top five wired broadband players in the country has reduced from 88.45 per cent from Dec-14 to 85.56 per cent as on Nov-15. During the same period All India wireline internet subscriber base has grown 7.11 per cent from 153.2 lakh to 164.1 lakh.

    The average all India subscriber growth rate per month for the period 1 January, 2015 to 30 November, 2015 was 0.62 per cent. During the period Dec-14 to May-15, the maximum growth was 0.46 per cent in Feb-15 with 70,000 net new broadband connections. Apr-15 saw nil growth rate and witnessed a decline in growth rate of 0.07 per cent in subscribers in the case of the top five wireline players in India. The average subscriber growth rate in the first five month period of the previous year was 0.31 per cent per month. The average subscriber growth during the next six month period including June-15 until Nov-15 was 0.89 per cent, with the highest in Aug-15 at 1.01 per cent. Please refer to Fig 1A below. Overall, the all India subscriber base has been growing at a faster pace than growth rate of the subscriber base of the top five wireline internet service providers in India.

    Fig 2 below indicates the subscriber details of the top five wired broadband internet service providers. While ACT has shown the highest growth during the period in this report, BSNL has had the steepest fall in subscription numbers during the first 11 month period of calendar year 2015. ACT’s share of All India wireline broadband internet subscribers has increased from 3.98 per cent at the start of the year to 5.12 per cent until Nov-15, while BSNL’s share has declined from 65.14 per cent in Dec-14 to 60.51 per cent in Nov-15. By its very stagnancy, MTNL’s share of All India wireline broadband internet subscribers has reduced from 7.38 per cent to 6.89 per cent during the same period. Airtel’s share has increased from 9.20 per cent to 9.99 per cent, while You BB’s share has increased from 2.74 per cent to 3.05 per cent during the same period.

    As is obvious from Fig 1A above, the share of new subscriber additions by the top five players has been reducing. MSOs in India have started providing internet services on the back of their cable networks using Docsis technology. In general, they have started reporting double digit YoY increase in internet subscribers and revenue. Three of the major MSOs and a regional MSO, whose results are available in the public domain for the quarter ended 31 December, 2016 (Q3-2016 current quarter) have been showing steady growth in their broadband segment over the past few quarters.

    In this report, let us look at how these television cable industry players have performed in the broadband space in Q3-2016. The four are: Hathway Cable and Datacom Limited (Hathway), Den Networks Ltd (Den), Siti Cable Network Limited (Siti Cable), and the regional player Ortel Communications Limited (Ortel).

    Hathway’s consolidated broadband subscribers increased by 50,000 or 9.31 per cent more QoQ, in Q3-2015 to 5.67 lakh. Hathway’s Broadband subscription revenue in Q3-2016 increased 53.4 per cent YoY to Rs 78.7 crore as compared to Rs 57.7 crore and increased 9.5 per cent QoQ as compared to Rs 57.7 crore. Hathway’s broadband standalone ARPUs increased 3.8 per cent QoQ from Rs 658 to Rs 683.

    Siti Cable Broadband revenue in the current quarter almost doubled (grew 99 per cent) at Rs 13.9 crore (3.8 per cent of OPREV) as compared to Rs 7 crore (3.2 per cent of OPREV) in Q3-2015 and increased 49.5 per cent QoQ as compared to Rs 9.3 crore (four per cent of OPREV). Broadband subscribers in the current quarter increased 17 per cent to 1,07,000 from 91,450 in Q2-2016.

    Den has also ramped up its broadband subscribers by 33.3 per cent to 76,000 in the current quarter from 57,000 in the immediate trailing quarter. The company’s broadband segment revenue increased by over five times YoY (5.5 times) at Rs 11.96 crore (3.4 per cent of TIO) as compared to Rs 2.17 crore (0.8 per cent of TIO) in corresponding prior year quarter and increased 58 per cent QoQ as compared to Rs 8.23 crore (three per cent of TIO). The segment’s YoY operating loss increased to Rs 19.57 crore as compared to Rs 12.37 crore, but reduced QoQ as compared to Rs 23.07 crore. The company says that broadband ARPU has declined by Rs 10 in the current quarter to Rs 760 from Rs 770 in the previous quarter.

    Den’s Broadband Post Activation EBIDTA in Q3-2016 was negative Rs 16 crore as compared to the negative Rs 11 crore in Q3-2015 and negative Rs 20 crore in Q2-2016.

    Ortel’s broadband segment reported 16.3 per cent higher revenue at Rs 8.28 crore as compared to Rs 7.12 crore in the corresponding year ago quarter and 1.7 per cent more than the Rs 8.14 crore in Q2-2016. The broadband segment reported an operating profit of Rs 4.78 crore in the current quarter as compared to Rs 4.52 crore in Q3-2015 and 9.1 per cent higher than the Rs 438 crore in Q2-2016.

    Ortel’s broadband customers in the current quarter grew 16.2 per cent YoY to 67,709 as compared to 58,277 and grew 6.4 per cent QoQ as compared to 63,663. Broadband ARPU in Q3-2016 was higher at Rs 396, in Q3-2015 it was Rs 394 and in Rs Q2-2016 it was Rs 395.

  • November 2015: ACT, Airtel lead subscriber additions for wireline broadband in India

    November 2015: ACT, Airtel lead subscriber additions for wireline broadband in India

    BENGALURU: Until 30 October, 2015 (Oct-15), ACT Broadband was leading in wireline broadband internet subscriber additions in India. November 2015 numbers released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) indicate that as on 30 November, 2015 (Nov-15), both ACT and Bharti Airtel have added 2.3 lakh subscribers (subject to a granularity of 10,000) each in the period between 31 December, 2014, hence 1 January, 2015 (Dec-14,) and Nov-15. In terms of wireline internet subscription numbers, Airtel had 16.4 lakh subscribers as on Nov-15, almost double the 8.4 lakh subscribers that ACT Broadband had.

    The top five players in India in the wireline broadband internet space in pecking order are the public sector Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), Bharti Airtel Limited (Airtel), public sector Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL), Atria Convergence Technologies Private Limited (ACT, ACT Broadband) and You Broadband (You BB). Among these five, only BSNL and Airtel can be termed national players at present. BSNL, Airtel and MTNL also provide wireline and mobile services while Airtel also has a direct to home (DTH) segment. ACT started off as an MSO with operations concentrated in a few major cities and towns located mainly in South India. It started internet services (ACT Broadband) a little later and has grown its broadband internet subscriber base over time, to the extent that it is quite likely the biggest private wireline broadband player in South India. You BB offers broadband operations in a few cities in Maharashtra, Gujarat the NCR region Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. 

    Overall, November 2015 saw 140,000 wireline subscriber additions, of which 30,000 were added by Airtel and 20,000 by ACT; 10,000 by You Broadband, while the public sector behemoth BSNL saw a decline of 10,000 subscribers. MTNL did not have any new additions, taking the contribution of the top five wireline broadband players to 50,000 (or 35.57 per cent of overall additions) during Nov-15.

    Note: (1) 100,00,000 = 100 Lakh = 10 million = 1 crore
    (2) TRAI reports indicate data in millions of numbers up to 2 decimal places. Hence it is assumed in this report that a figure of 0.47 million (4.7 lakh) subscribers for You BB for July-2015 would be granular to the nearest 10,000. While percentages perforce have been mentioned up to two decimal places, the accuracy may vary, depending upon the exact number.
    (3) Industry sources say that TRAI numbers in the case of ACT for May-2015 are incorrect at 0.66 million and the correct number would be 0.693 million. This report considers the number as 6.93 lakh or 0.693 million.
    (4) MSOs have a number of subsidiaries and alliances, hence broadband numbers are split as applicable. The consolidated subscription numbers of these entities could be larger. Hathway is a case in point.
    (5) Ortel’s numbers for Q3-2015 have been estimated from the numbers released by it for Q1-2015, Q2-2015, Q4-2015 and FY-2015.
    (6) The term ‘operating revenue’ in this report indicates ‘total income from operations.’

    Please refer to Fig 1 below. 

    Over an 11 month period, the subscriber numbers share of the top five wired broadband players in the country has reduced from 88.45 per cent from Dec-14 to 85.56 per cent as on Nov-15. During the same period All India wireline internet subscriber base has grown 7.11 per cent from 153.2 lakh to 164.1 lakh.

    The average all India subscriber growth rate per month for the period 1 January, 2015 to 30 November, 2015 was 0.62 per cent. During the period Dec-14 to May-15, the maximum growth was 0.46 per cent in Feb-15 with 70,000 net new broadband connections. Apr-15 saw nil growth rate and witnessed a decline in growth rate of 0.07 per cent in subscribers in the case of the top five wireline players in India. The average subscriber growth rate in the first five month period of the previous year was 0.31 per cent per month. The average subscriber growth during the next six month period including June-15 until Nov-15 was 0.89 per cent, with the highest in Aug-15 at 1.01 per cent. Please refer to Fig 1A below. Overall, the all India subscriber base has been growing at a faster pace than growth rate of the subscriber base of the top five wireline internet service providers in India.

    Fig 2 below indicates the subscriber details of the top five wired broadband internet service providers. While ACT has shown the highest growth during the period in this report, BSNL has had the steepest fall in subscription numbers during the first 11 month period of calendar year 2015. ACT’s share of All India wireline broadband internet subscribers has increased from 3.98 per cent at the start of the year to 5.12 per cent until Nov-15, while BSNL’s share has declined from 65.14 per cent in Dec-14 to 60.51 per cent in Nov-15. By its very stagnancy, MTNL’s share of All India wireline broadband internet subscribers has reduced from 7.38 per cent to 6.89 per cent during the same period. Airtel’s share has increased from 9.20 per cent to 9.99 per cent, while You BB’s share has increased from 2.74 per cent to 3.05 per cent during the same period.

    As is obvious from Fig 1A above, the share of new subscriber additions by the top five players has been reducing. MSOs in India have started providing internet services on the back of their cable networks using Docsis technology. In general, they have started reporting double digit YoY increase in internet subscribers and revenue. Three of the major MSOs and a regional MSO, whose results are available in the public domain for the quarter ended 31 December, 2016 (Q3-2016 current quarter) have been showing steady growth in their broadband segment over the past few quarters.

    In this report, let us look at how these television cable industry players have performed in the broadband space in Q3-2016. The four are: Hathway Cable and Datacom Limited (Hathway), Den Networks Ltd (Den), Siti Cable Network Limited (Siti Cable), and the regional player Ortel Communications Limited (Ortel).

    Hathway’s consolidated broadband subscribers increased by 50,000 or 9.31 per cent more QoQ, in Q3-2015 to 5.67 lakh. Hathway’s Broadband subscription revenue in Q3-2016 increased 53.4 per cent YoY to Rs 78.7 crore as compared to Rs 57.7 crore and increased 9.5 per cent QoQ as compared to Rs 57.7 crore. Hathway’s broadband standalone ARPUs increased 3.8 per cent QoQ from Rs 658 to Rs 683.

    Siti Cable Broadband revenue in the current quarter almost doubled (grew 99 per cent) at Rs 13.9 crore (3.8 per cent of OPREV) as compared to Rs 7 crore (3.2 per cent of OPREV) in Q3-2015 and increased 49.5 per cent QoQ as compared to Rs 9.3 crore (four per cent of OPREV). Broadband subscribers in the current quarter increased 17 per cent to 1,07,000 from 91,450 in Q2-2016.

    Den has also ramped up its broadband subscribers by 33.3 per cent to 76,000 in the current quarter from 57,000 in the immediate trailing quarter. The company’s broadband segment revenue increased by over five times YoY (5.5 times) at Rs 11.96 crore (3.4 per cent of TIO) as compared to Rs 2.17 crore (0.8 per cent of TIO) in corresponding prior year quarter and increased 58 per cent QoQ as compared to Rs 8.23 crore (three per cent of TIO). The segment’s YoY operating loss increased to Rs 19.57 crore as compared to Rs 12.37 crore, but reduced QoQ as compared to Rs 23.07 crore. The company says that broadband ARPU has declined by Rs 10 in the current quarter to Rs 760 from Rs 770 in the previous quarter.

    Den’s Broadband Post Activation EBIDTA in Q3-2016 was negative Rs 16 crore as compared to the negative Rs 11 crore in Q3-2015 and negative Rs 20 crore in Q2-2016.

    Ortel’s broadband segment reported 16.3 per cent higher revenue at Rs 8.28 crore as compared to Rs 7.12 crore in the corresponding year ago quarter and 1.7 per cent more than the Rs 8.14 crore in Q2-2016. The broadband segment reported an operating profit of Rs 4.78 crore in the current quarter as compared to Rs 4.52 crore in Q3-2015 and 9.1 per cent higher than the Rs 438 crore in Q2-2016.

    Ortel’s broadband customers in the current quarter grew 16.2 per cent YoY to 67,709 as compared to 58,277 and grew 6.4 per cent QoQ as compared to 63,663. Broadband ARPU in Q3-2016 was higher at Rs 396, in Q3-2015 it was Rs 394 and in Rs Q2-2016 it was Rs 395.

  • Can the Indian cable television industry truly head the US cable television industry way?

    Can the Indian cable television industry truly head the US cable television industry way?

    People often tend to compare the cable television industry in India with that of the US. They say that the industry is headed the US way. One of the crucial points is internet service and more specifically broadband service. This business and revenue growth alternative has been gaining a lot of attention from the cable television industry as an expansion strategy. Higher Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) in India, to the extent of 3 to 5 times the ARPU earned through transmission of television bouquets, certainly makes this service an attractive proposition.

     

    Comparisons with a mature market like the US may not work in India. Indian cable television players have a long road ahead before any comparison or trying to relate with the industry, in any way could even start to make sense.

     

    One of the foremost factors is money. According to the National Cable and Television Association, USA (NCTA), the total US broadband industry investments since 1994 is about US$ 1400 billion (4.7 per cent of the US’s estimated revenue for 2014) or 60.7 per cent of India’s nominal GDP of US 2308 billion in April 2015. Money can bridge the technology gap, leapfrog it, as it has in many instances in India.

     

    Of course, this leads to the oft repeated point about the high cost of implementation of all DAS phases. It is a foregone fact that the capex starved cable television industry with poor balance sheets is going to deploy more money towards that effort if it wants the government to allow it to remain in business. Delays in deadlines may be possible, but in the current scenario, DAS is there to stay and is required for the benefit of all stakeholders.

     

    Notwithstanding the bureaucracy logjam that India is notorious for, another major stumbling block is the slow and hugely over vamped judicial system (besides regulation) in India that could take years to decide on any dispute. Settling of civil disputes has no deadline in India. The cliché, for businesses, ‘time is money’, holds good here too.

     

    Let us look at internet services

     

    The number of internet users worldwide will surpass 3 billion (300 crore) in 2015, according to eMarketer, increasing 6.2 per cent next year to reach 42.4 per cent of the entire world’s population. By 2018, eMarketer estimates, nearly half the world’s population, or 360 crore people, will access the internet at least once each month.  

     

    eMarketer says that by 2016 India will jump the US as the second-largest internet user population. China leads the world in terms of number of internet users with estimated 66.98 crore users, followed by the US with 25.93 crore and India with 24.23 crore say eMarketer estimates. In 2016, the publication estimates an Indian internet user base of 28.38 crore, higher than the 26.49 crore projections for the US. By 2018, India’s estimated internet subscriber base will be 34.63 crore or probably in the range of about 25-28 per cent of the population of the country at that time. Indian population figures for 2013 are an estimated 125.2 crore. Current population estimates for the US are about 32 crore, or the US has an internet density percentage of about 80, while China’s internet density percentage is about 50 and India just under 20.

     

    “Inexpensive mobile phones and mobile broadband connections are driving internet access and usage in countries where fixed internet has been out of reach for consumers, whether that’s due to lack of infrastructure or affordability,” said eMarketer senior forecasting analyst  Monica Peart. “While highly developed markets are nearly saturated in terms of internet users, there’s significant room for growth in emerging ones; for example, India and Indonesia will both see double-digit growth in each year between now and 2018.”

     

    The growing youth population is another important driver, as the most technologically savvy, and their demands shape internet development itself, says a Euromonitor report.

     

    According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), India had a wireline broadband subscriber base (speed greater than 512 kpbs) of 155.2 lakh and 852.3 lakh wireless broadband subscribers as on 30 April, 2015 or 1007.6 lakh broadband subscribers totally. This means that less than 1 per cent of the total population of the country has broadband. There is no denying the fact that the potential is huge, more so for broadband.

     

    Siti Cable (Siti), a multi system operator (MSO), believes that its strategy of cross-selling broadband services to its existing cable television subscribers and new customers will provide it with an opportunity to increase ARPUs, increase retention rates, ensure higher sustainable EBITDA margins and leverage upon its existing pan India presence.

     

    A few players such as medium sized MSO Atria Convergence Technologies (ACT) had actually changed its strategy since 2012 and started focusing more on broadband services, without losing focus on its MSO operations. It offers broadband internet in areas where it does not have cable subscribers. Despite being a regional player, ACT is the second largest private wired broadband player in the country, just after the mobile telecom behemoth Airtel. ACT’s broadband subscriber base has grown by 43.76 per cent to 6.11 lakh in the 12 months until 31December, 2014. As on 30 April, 2015, ACT had a wired broadband subscriber base of 6.8 lakh.

     

    However, ACT has followed a different strategy when compared to the other MSOs who use DOCSIS on the existing television cable for internet delivery. The company has laid separate optic fibre lines for internet delivery and hence owns even the last mile, rather than use its existing cable infrastructure and be dependent upon the LCOs’ whims and fancies.

     

    It must also be noted that the number of internet subscribers that each major cable television player in the US has runs in crores in a couple of cases. The largest MSO in India in terms of cable subscribers – Den Networks, with about 130 lakh subscribers has less than half the customer relationships that Comcast’s Cable Communications segment has with 272.34 lakh subscribers, of which about 223.75 lakh are video subscribers and 223.69 lakh are high speed internet subscribers. While Den’s cable subscriber base is about 58 per cent of Comcast Cable Communications segment, its internet subscriber base as on 31 March, 2015, is a small fraction at just 23,000 or just a little more than one thousandth of the internet subscribers that Comcast has. Even, ACT’s internet subscriber base of about 7 lakh is less than one-thirtieth of Comcast’s Cable Communications High-Speed internet subscribers. Is there any comparison?

     

    According to Nielsen’s 2015 Advance National TV Household Universe Estimate (UE), there are 11.64 crore TV homes in the U.S. prior to the start of the 2014-15 TV season. The number of homes represents a 0.5 per cent increase from Nielsen’s 2013-14 TV Household Universe Estimate. The number of persons aged 2 and older in U.S. TV Households is estimated to be 29.6 crore—also an increase of 0.5 per cent from last year. This puts the number of subscribers in the previous year as per Nielsen’s estimates at 11.58 crore.  The Indian carriage universe has 16.8 crore homes (44.3 per cent more than the estimated US TV homes) according to the FICCI- KPMG Indian Media and Entertainment Industry Report 2015. (FICCI-M&E 2015 report).

     

    The number of video subscribers through wire in the US as of 2013 was about 6.6 crore or the country had a cabletelevision percentage density just under 21. India has a TV home (TV Households or TV HH) density percentage of a little less than 13.5 (this includes DTH for India).

     

    Besides a number of cable television and IPTV service providers, the US has two big DTH players – Dish and Directv that had a combined subscriber base in Q1-2015 of approximately 341 lakh, or about 29 per cent of the total TV homes in the US estimated by Nielsen. India had an active DTH subscriber base of about 405.4 lakh (24.3 per cent of TV HH in India) as on 31 December, 2014.

     

     As mentioned above, in India, internet services ARPU is much higher than the ARPU from cable television services as compared to more mature markets such as the US, where it is the other way around. At the time of writing of this report, internet services monthly ARPU could be between 50 to 65 per cent of the video monthly ARPUs’ in the US. Video monthly ARPU would typically be in the range of US$ 75 to US$ 95, while internet monthly ARPU would range between US$ 40 to US$ 50. Is there an ARPU comparison? No way!

     

    Let us look at three players in the US. The entities in this report – Comcast Corporation’s Cable Communications segment, Time Warner Cable (TWC, about half the size of Comcast Cable Communications segment) and Charter Communications (Charter Comm) (About half the size again of TWC) represent about 32 per cent of the total US TV homes estimated by Nielsen.

     

    In Q1-2015, these entities combined video subscribers dropped by 6.12 lakh (1.61 per cent) to 373.47 lakh (32.09 per cent of Nielsen’s estimated TV Homes) from 379.59 lakh (32.77 per cent of Nielsen’s estimated TV Homes) in Q1-2014. Individually too, all the three entities reported loss of video subscribers in Q1-2015 to the extent of 1 per cent in the case of Comcast and Charter Comm and 3.08 per cent in the case of TWC, as compared to the corresponding year ago quarter. Despite the drop in video subscribers, the other two reported an increase in revenue from video in Q1-2015, while TWC even saw its video revenues drop by 1.04 per cent in Q1-2015 as compared to Q1-2014.

     

    The total number of internet subscribers of these three entities exceeded the total number of video subscribers in Q1-2015– internet subscribers grew to 392.5 lakh (5.1 per cent more than video subscribers) as compared to 369.45 crore (2.67 per cent less than video subscribers) in Q1-2014. All the three players reported increases in their internet subscription base as well as revenue from Internet in Q1-2015 when compared to the year ago quarter.

     

    Triple play (or triple product) subscribers increased in all the three cases, between 0.61 per cent in the case of Charter Comm to 14.49 per cent in the case of TWC and 4.26 per cent in the case of Comcast in Q1-2015 when compared to Q1-2014. TWC and Charter Comm’s double play subscriber base shrank 8.05 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively, while Comcast’s double play subscription numbers increased in comparison during similar periods.

     

    Notes: (1) 100,00,000 = 100 lakh = 10 million = 1 crore

     

    (2) Revenues for US companies and some figures in this report have been mentioned in US$, million; subscription numbers in lakh or crore and TV homes in crore.

     

    (2) SARPU, a term similar to ARPU has been coined by the writer to bring terms to a common denominator for all the three US entities. To arrive at SARPU, the writer has added the quarterly revenues from each stream and divided the result by the number of customer relationships in that quarter and further divided the second result by 3 to arrive at a rough estimate of the revenue earned per relationship per month by the entity. Similarly, individual revenues from video, internet and voice streams/business have been divided by the number of subscribers of video, internet and voice streams respectively, further divided by 3 to arrive at an SARPU of that stream. Residential subscriber numbers have been used wherever available.

     

    (2.1) VIVE, another term coined by the writer, means video, internet and voice, the three main revenue generating streams or businesses for the three US entities in this report.

     

    (3) Voice numbers has been included, since there are number of overlaps in subscription numbers for VIVE of all the three entities.

     

    (4) ARPUs’ and SARPUs’ in this report are on a monthly basis unless stated otherwise.

     

    Comcast Cable Communications segment

     

    Comcast’s Cable Communications segment’s (probably the largest cable company and home internet services provider in the US) comprises 272.34 lakh relationships in Q1-2015 (quarter ended 31 March, 2015). The number grew by just 1.62 per cent from the 268 lakh in Q1-2014, and was driven by increases in double and triple product relationships.  This is what the cable industry in India is trying to ape – the double and triple play numbers.

     

    The breakup of these customers is 83.99 lakh single product, 2.39 per cent lower than the 86.05 lakh in Q1-2014; 88.90 lakh double product, 2.7 per cent more than the 86.56 lakh double product consumers in Q1-2014 and 99.45 lakh triple product consumers, 4.26 per cent more than the 95.39 lakh in  Q1-2014.

     

    The breakup of number of Comcast’s cable operations customers base on products is 223.75 lakh of video consumers in Q1-2015 – the number fell by 8000 as compared to the corresponding year ago quarter; 223.69 lakh high-speed internet consumers – the number increased by 4.07 lakh as compared to Q1-2014; and 112.70 lakh voices consumers – the number increased by 77000 as compared to the previous year ago quarter.

     

    Based on the financials filed by the company for Q1-2015, 69.16 per cent of the company’s consumers’ use two (double play) or more of its products, (up 127 basis points or 1.87 per cent higher) than the 67.89 per cent in Q1-2014.

     

    Let us examine the revenue that these businesses bring in for the company:

     

    Comcast’s Cable Communications segment revenue in Q1-2015 grew 6.26 per cent to US$ 11430 million from US$ 10757 million in Q1-2014. Combined revenue from Video, Internet and Voice (VIVE) businesses in Q1-2015 grew 4.89 per cent to US$ 9281 million (81.20 per cent of Cable Communications segment revenue) from US$ 8848 million (82.25 per cent Cable Communications segment revenue) in Q1-2014.

     

    Video revenue in Q1-2015 was US$ 5331million (57.44 per cent of VIVE revenue), 2.95 per cent more than the Rs 5178 million (58.52 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2014; Internet revenue in Q1-2015 grew 10.69 per cent to US$ 3044 million (32.80 per cent of VIVE) from US$ 2750 million (31.08 per cent of VIVE) in Q1-2014. Voice revenue fell 1.52 per cent in Q1-2015 to US$ 906 million (9.6 per cent of VIVE revenue) from US$ 920 million (10.4 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2014.

     

    A simple back of the envelope calculation as mentioned in Note 2 above shows the simple average monthly revenue per user (SARPU) of US$ 113.60 for Q1-2015, up 3.22 per cent as compared to the US$ 110.05 in Q1-2014.

     

    Similarly, Video SARPU grew 3.99 per cent in Q1-2015 to US$ 79.42 from US$ 76.37 in Q1-2014; Internet services SARPU grew 4.25 per cent to US$ 45.36 (56.97 per cent of video SARPU) in Q1-2015 from US$ 43.51 (57.12 per cent of video SARPU) in Q1-2014; Voice SARPU fell 5.06 per cent to US$ 26.80 from US$ 28.23 in the year ago quarter.

     

    Time Warner Cable

     

    Let us see how another big player in the US performed – Time Warner Cable (TWC).  In Q1-2015 the company saw its highest q-o-q growth in internet subscriber base since 2007 by 3.15 lakh to 119.90 lakh from 116.75 lakh in the quarter ended 31 December, 2014. Y-o-y, the company’s internet subscriber base grew by 6.32 lakh. However, the company’s video subscribers fell 3.08 per cent in Q1-2015 to 108.19 lakh from 111.63 lakh in Q1-2014. Voice subscribers increased 14.06 per cent in Q1-2015 to 56.04 lakh from 49.13 lakh in Q1-2014. TWC’s customer relationships increased 1.27 per cent in Q1-2015 to 147.16 lakh from 145.32 lakh in Q1-2014.

     

    In Q1-2015, the number of consumers using TWC’s double or triple play increased by 64 basis points (up 1.05 per cent) to 61.45 per cent from 60.81 per cent.

     

    TWC’s overall revenue in Q1-2015 grew 2.06 percent to US$ 4662 million from US$ 4568 million in Q1-2014. Its VIVE revenue in Q1-2015 grew 1.96 per cent to US$ 4638 million (99.49 per cent of overall revenue) from US$ 4549 million (99.58 per cent of overall revenue) in Q1-2014.

     

    Video revenue fell 1.04 per cent in Q1-2015 to US$ 2469 million (53.23 per cent of VIVE revenue) from US 2495 million (54.85 per cent of VIVE revenue); Internet revenue grew 8.86 per cent to US$ 1696 million (36.57 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2015 from US$ 1558 million (34.25 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2014. Voice revenue in Q1-2015 fell 4.64 per cent to US$ 473 million (10.2 per cent of VIVE revenue) from US$ 496 million (10.9 per cent of VIVE revenue).

     

    TWC’s SARPU per customer relationship was US$ 105.06 in Q1-2015 or 0.68 per cent higher than the US$ 104.34 in Q1-2014.

     

    TWC’s video SARPU in Q1-2015 increased 2.1 per cent to US$ 76.07 from US$ 74.50 in Q1-2014; Internet SARPU increased 3.12 per cent to US$ 47.15 (61.98 per cent of video SARPU) in Q1-2015 from US$ 45.72 (61.37 per cent of SARPU) in Q1-2014 and Voice SARPU fell 16.4 per cent in Q1-2015 to US$ 28.13 from US$ 33.65 in Q4-2014.

     

    Charter Communications

     

    Charter Communications (Charter Com), an even smaller player than Comcast or TWC, reported 4.48 per cent growth in residential consumer relationships in Q1-2015 to 59.27 lakh from 56.73 lakh in Q1-2014. Video subscription base fell 1 per cent to 41.53 lakh (70.07 per cent of total relationships) from 41.95 lakh (73.95 per cent of total relationships) in Q1-2014; Internet subscription base grew in Q1-2015 by 8.23 per cent to 48.91 lakh (82.52 per cent of total relationships, addition of 3.23 lakh subscribers) from 45.91 lakh (79.66 per cent of total relationships) in Q1-2014; Voice subscribers grew 6.71 per cent in Q1-2015 to 24.81 lakh (59.74 per cent of total relationships) from 56.93 lakh (40.98 per cent of total relationships) in the corresponding year ago quarter.

     

    Overall revenue grew 7.27 per cent to US$ 2362 million in Q1-2015 from US$ 2202 million in Q1-2014. VIVE revenue in Q1-2015 grew 6.68 per cent to US$ 1980 million (83.83 per cent of overall revenue) from US$ 1856 million (84.29 per cent of overall revenue).

     

    Video revenue increased 3.58 per cent in Q1-2015 to US$ 1129 million (53.23 per cent of VIVE revenue) from US$ 1090 million (54.85 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2014; Internet revenue increased 16.4 per cent to US$ 717 million (36.21 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2015 from US$ 616 million (33.19 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2014. Voice revenue in Q1-2015 fell 10.67 per cent to US$ 134 million (6.77 per cent of VIVE revenue) from US$ 150 million (8.08 per cent of VIVE revenue) in Q1-2014.

     

    Charter Comm’s SARPU in Q1-2015 increased 2.11 per cent to US$ 111.35 from US$ 109.05 in Q1-2014. Video SARPU increased 4.63 per cent to US$ 90.62 in Q1-2015 from US$ 86.61 in the corresponding year ago quarter; Internet SARPU in Q1-2015 increased 7.54 per cent to US$ 48.87 (53.92 per cent of video SARPU) from US$ 45.44 (52.46 per cent of video SARPU) in Q1-2014; Voice SARPU fell 16.28 per cent in Q1-2015 to US$ 18 from US$ 21.51 in Q1-2014.

     

    Let us see what the richest Indian does through Reliance Jio Media, for this is probably the only group/entity that has the deep pockets to really offer a shimmer of comparison with the media giants in the US.

     

    Can we truly compare Cable television internet in India with the industry in the US? No way!

  • FY-2015: Indian cable industry – long haul work in progress

    FY-2015: Indian cable industry – long haul work in progress

    BENGALURU: The cable industry in India has made a remarkable amount of progress in implementing DAS in phase I and phase II considering the weak balance sheets that most players carry, but all still have a long way to go before they actually start making profits. However, the promise of addressability, greater transparency and higher average revenue per user (ARPU) is yet to be realized by the cable industry.

    Current Status

    As on 31 December, 2014, 138 multi system operators (MSOs) have been granted permanent registration (for 10 years) for providing Cable TV services through Digital Addressable Systems (DAS) by the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (MIB).

    DAS roll out in phases III and IV is expected to be more challenging on account of larger geographical spread, poor balance sheets of the cable industry players and low potential for ARPUs from the conventional cable carriage and subscription business. Implementation of phases I and II was challenging, tiered packages have yet to be offered to the viewer and billing is still work in progress as MSOs still face resistance from local cable operators (LCOs) in giving up ownership of customers in some cases.

    Cable players in India have started giving broadband services a lot of serious attention in fiscal 2015. A few players such as the medium sized MSO Atria Convergence Technologies Private Limited (ACT) had actually changed strategy since 2012 and started focusing more on broadband services, without losing focus on its MSO operations. Despite being a regional player, ACT is the second largest private wired broadband player in the country with a market share of 3.24 per cent and over 6.11 lakh broadband subscribers as on 31 December, 2104, just after the behemoth Airtel (15 lakh subscribers, 7.95 per cent market share). ACT had 4.25 lakh (includes numbers of Beam Telecom Limited which was merged with ACT on 1 April, 2014) broadband customers as on 31 December, 2013 and hence, its broadband subscriber base has grown by 43.76 per cent in the 12 months until 31 December, 2014. As on April 30, 2015, Atria had a wired broadband subscriber base of 6.8 lakh.

    Public sector companies such as BSNL (the largest wired internet services player in India with 69.83 per cent market share, 1.317 crore subscribers) and MTNL (6.02 per cent market share and 11.3 lakh subscribers) are of course bigger players in the wired broadband services than ACT. Among the major MSOs in the country, Indusind Media & Communications Limited is probably the only player whose broadband subscriber base has not grown much until 31 December, 2014, during which the company reported 29,709 internet subscribers (including 3539 narrowband subscribers) as compared to the 28,337 subscribers (including 4750 narrowband subscribers) as on 31 December, 2013.

    Internet services has turned into a heavy capex exercise for many MSOs where the last mile is owned by LCOs mainly because an MSO may not be allowed access to the customer for sales and service by the LCO, and/or the quality of the cable may not be at par.

    This report takes four MSOs – Den Networks Limited (Den), Siti Cable Network Limited (Siti), Hathway Cable and Datacom Limited (Hathway) and Ortel Communications Limited (Ortel), financials as a sample size.

    Note: 100,00,000 = 100 lakh = 10 million = 1 crore

    Let’s look at FY-2015 numbers reported by these companies:

    (Please refer to Fig 1 below) The sum total of operating revenue (OR) for these companies in FY-2015 grew 9.94 per cent to Rs 3213.27 crore from Rs 2922.86 crore in the previous year. Den, the company with the highest operating revenue numbers and subscriber base amongst the three, showed the lowest operating revenue growth of just 1.16 per cent to Rs 1129.64 crore in FY-2015 from Rs 1116.69 per cent in FY-2014. Siti showed the highest operating revenue growth at 29.93 per cent in FY-2015 at Rs 905.93 crore from Rs 627.24 crore in FY-2014. The minnow – Ortel’s operating revenue grew 20.46 per cent to Rs 158.79 crore in FY-2015 from Rs 128.50 crore in the previous fiscal, while that of the second largest player among the four, Hathway grew 4.33 per cent to Rs 1022.91 crore in the current year from Rs 980.43 crore in FY-2014.

    Cable Subscription Numbers

    Most MSOs’ revenue model is subscription, carriage plus advertising charges for cable services and broadband. Set- top-box (STB) seeding is a one time periodic revenue (maybe once every five years?) for the companies that could later erode the profits – considering the depreciation and the interest cost on the STB subsidy that many MSOs offer to subscribers.

    In its FY-2014 annual report, Den said it serves an estimated 1.3 crore households of which over 64 lakh had opted for digital subscription as on 31 March, 2014. The company has a digital subscriber base of 70 lakh (53.85 per cent of total number of 1.3 crore subscribers) as on 31 March, 2015, of which 51 lakh are in phases I and II of DAS, and Den continues to bill about 80 per cent of these subscribers.

    On the other hand, Siti has reported 1.05 crore subscribers and a digital subscriber base of 53.8 lakh (51.24 per cent of total subscribers) for FY-2015, a conversion of 13.8 lakh subscribers to digital over a 12 month period, from the 40 lakh digital subscribers it had reported at the end of FY-2014. As a matter of fact, in Q4-2015, the company deployed 5.3 lakh STBs, and a big portion of its seeding had taken place then.

    Hathway has a subscriber base of 1.18 crore of which 85 lakh (72 per cent of total subscribers) are digital and 65 lakh are paying subscribers. This makes it the biggest player in the country in terms of digital subscribers.

    Ortel reported a subscriber base of 4.72 lakh in FY-2015 as compared to 4.61 lakh in FY-2014. The company reports 1.07 lakh (22.73 per cent of total subscribers) digital subscribers as on 31 March, 2015.

    Ortel CEO and President Bibhu Prasad Rath said, “Ortel Communications’ direct-to-consumer offering with full control over the ‘last mile’ network has enabled us to emerge as a dominant regional player in the cable TV and broadband business. With increasing penetration in our core and emerging markets along with the inorganic LCO buy out strategy, we believe we are well-positioned to achieve our immediate target of approximately 1 million RGUs by the end of FY-2017.”

    Subscription income for all the four mentioned companies has grown, with Siti showing the highest jump at 56.41 per cent – from Rs 339.5 crore in FY-2014 to Rs 531 crore in FY-2015. (Please refer to figure 2 below) Ortel’s subscription revenue grew the least 4.36 per cent – from Rs 75.7 crore in the previous year to Rs 79 crore in FY-2015.

    Siti Cable executive director and CEO V D Wadhwa said, “Our focus on monetization of existing business in phase I and II cities in FY-2015, led to a strong subscription revenue growth of 57 per cent y-o-y and operating EBITDA margin expansion. Siti Cable is engaged in proactive seeding and well placed to benefit from the ongoing digitization process.”

    Internet Services

    As mentioned above, offering internet service is a part of many of the major MSOs’ business and revenue expansion strategy. Internet services, and more so broadband services of all the four companies mentioned in this report have in general shown higher revenue growth than their cable services revenues.

    Den commenced its broadband services in Q1-2015 and has garnered 23,000 subscribers since then. Den CEO Pradeep Parameswaram said, ”We are laying the foundations of building a powerful consumer franchisee in broadband, cable television and television shopping. Significant investments are being made to bring disruptive consumer offerings to the market. We are augmenting out historical strengths in cable operations with high quality talent in all functions.”

    Siti Cable’s broadband revenue in FY-2015 grew 53.3 per cent to Rs 26.5 crore from Rs 17 crore in FY-2015. The company reported a broadband subscriber base of 70,100 in FY-2015 as compared to 54,000 in FY-2014.

    “We are looking to expand our broadband presence on Docsis technology in our endeavour to diversify our revenue stream and provide the consumer with a compelling experience,” added Wadhwa.

    Hathway’s broadband revenue jumped 47 per cent to Rs 247.5 crore in FY-2015. With the addition of Delhi and Central Mumbai to Docsis 3.0 and upgradation of Surat Network, Hathway is the only MSO to offer high speed 50 mbps broadband services in Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Surat.

    Ortel’s broadband revenue increased five per cent to Rs 28.9 crore in FY-2015 from Rs 27.5 crore in FY-2014. The company’s broadband subscribers increased 7.52 per cent in FY-2015 to 58,519 from 54,427 in the previous year.

    “We anticipate further improvement in margins going forward as a result of deeper penetration in the Cable business along with our continued focus on the high-margin Broadband segment,” said Ortel’s Rath.

    EBIDTA

    The financials of three of the four sample players showed an increase in operating profits (simple EBIDTA including other income). (Please refer to Fig 3 below) Den EBIDTA dropped to half at Rs 180.23 crore in FY-2015 from the Rs 360.41 crore in FY-2014. With an increase of 94.17 per cent, Siti’s FY-2015 EBIDTA almost doubled to Rs 168.43 crore from Rs 86.74 crore in FY-2014. Hathway’s EBIDTA in FY-2015 increased 16.13 per cent to Rs 560.9 crore from Rs 483 crore in the previous year. Ortel’s EBIDTA increasd 44.6 per cent to Rs 59.05 crore from Rs 40.84 crore in the previous fiscal.

    Profit/Loss

    (Please refer to figure 4 below) Two of the three large players in this sample – Siti Cable and Hatway have reported higher loss in FY-2015, while Den’s results have turned to the red in FY-2015 from the black in FY-2014. Ortel, which was listed a few months ago on the bourses, is the only one among the four that has reported a small profit of Rs 5.90 crore (3.62 per cent margin) in the current year as compared to a loss of Rs 13.79 crore in the previous year.

    “We have seen the positive results on subscription revenues and collections in Q4 of the current year. The profitability has been impacted because of the new business initiatives of the company including broadband, TV Shop and football as we build Den for future,” said Den’s Parameswaran.

    Last year, Den became the owner of the Hero Indian Super League’s Delhi Team – Delhi Dynamos FC. With the introduction of Delhi Dynamos FC, the company aims to become the default destination for entertainment, information and interactivity for the Indian family.

    End Points

    As the value chain shifts to addressable systems and tiering, growth in cable TV ARPUs will be driven by customized channel packs, premium content channels, HD channels and other value added services. It will not be easy going because cable industry players have to contend with DTH players who have strong balance sheets and are backed by deep pockets – be it Airtel, Tata Sky, Videocon d2h, Sun Direct or Reliance.

    The cable industry players need to sort out the ambiguity about revenue shares between the MSOs and LCOs and between the MSOs and broadcasters. The one positive is that larger MSOs appeared to have stopped poaching LCOs from each other, at least in phases I and II areas. “It’s not because the industry has turned goodie-goodie all of a sudden. Generally, it is just not worth the cost to pay to an LCO to switch loyalties in a phase I and II areas, or any area where digitsation has happened in a major way,” reveals an MSO on condition on anonymity. That attitude has to change for the common good of the industry.

    An industry source cites instances of LCOs still trying to fudge numbers despite deployment of STBs, with the LCOs claiming that a customer has relocated without returning the STB, or fudging with the number of STBs received. On the other hand, some LCOs need help in developing a robust last mile infrastructure.

    The cable industry has to leverage whatever advantages it has – this could be providing local information and relevant local news, local advertisements, etc., on MSOs’ own channels and services.

    A key differentiator could be the service quality and the personal connect that many operators have developed with consumers. Industry players need to change the impression they create right from ground up. This includes approach to customers for bill collection, to how each individual is perceived by anyone and everyone in the value chain, and more so banks and financers. Big as well as multiple middle sized players have already brought in a degree of professionalism across many levels and hence have relatively easier access to funding.

    Long term common purpose unity is what the cable industry needs desperately. Each player has to mature, has to understand and accept that one cannot do without the other. The road is still long and arduous.