Tag: ABP News-CVoter

Mumbai: Ahead of the high-stake elections to five states, being seen as the semifinal before the 2024 grand finale, an opinion poll conducted by ABP News-CVoter has revealed which way the votes could sway in Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana. The elections will take place in Chhattisgarh in two phases on 7 November and 17 November, while Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana will have single-phase polling on 7 November, 17 November, 23 November, and 30 November, respectively. The counting of votes will take place on 3 December.

According to the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, it looks like Rajasthan is coming back to the BJP after five years, not deviating from the revolving door mechanism followed in the state since 1993. The BJP is projected to win 127-137 seats in the 200-seat assembly. In terms of votes percentage, the BJP is projected to get 46.7 per cent votes, against Congress’ 42%.

Madhya Pradesh, meanwhile, is likely to see a close contest between the ruling BJP and the Congress, with the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll giving the latter more seats but no clear majority. The Congress could win 113 to 125 seats, while the ruling BJP could get 104-116 seats. The magic number in the 230-seat assembly is 116. In terms of vote percentage, the BJP is marginally high at 44.7% against INC’s 44.6%.

In Chhattisgarh, where the ruling Congress is facing an anti-incumbency, the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll gives the party an edge, though the seat projection shows its tally down since the last elections and the BJP breathing down its neck. The Congress is projected to win 45-51 seats, down from 68 in 2018. The BJP could win 39-45 seats, according to the opinion poll.

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

Telangana, where the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi) has been in power for 10 years, could spring a surprise as the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll shows a direct and close fight between the ruling BRS and the Congress, which could also mean a hung assembly. The Congress is projected to win 48 to 60 seats in the 119-seat assembly, more than BRS’ 43-55. The majority mark is 60.

A table with numbers and symbols

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

A hung assembly is predicted for Mizoram too where the ruling MNF is projected to win 13 to 17 seats, as against the INC’s 10-14. The majority mark in the 40-member assembly is 21.

Methodology:

This opinion poll is based on CVoter Pre Poll personal interviews (Face to Face) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters. 
Time frame: September 1 to October 8
Sample size 
Rajasthan: 30044 
Madhya Pradesh: 38343 
Chhattisgarh: 7652 
Telangana: 11928 
Mizoram: 1758
LS Seats Covered: Rajasthan 25, MP 29, Chhattisgarh 11, Telangana 17, Mizoram 1
VS Seats Covered: Rajasthan 200, MP 230, Chhattisgarh 90, Telangana 119, Mizoram 40
Margin of Error: +/- 3% to +/- 5%
Confidence Level: 95%

Mumbai: The state of Chhattisgarh could see the ruling Congress party return to power after the Assembly elections this year. An opinion poll for Chhattisgarh by ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) has predicted that the Congress will get a majority in the forthcoming Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) projected to give a tough fight.

As per the ABP News-CVoter survey, the Congress is likely to win 48-54 seats with a vote share of 45.6 per cent, while the opposition BJP is likely to win 35-41 seats with a vote share of 41.1 per cent. There is no other major party in the fray, and Others are likely to win 0-3 seats with a vote share of 13.3 per cent.

During the ABP News-CVoter survey conducted in Chhattisgarh, the respondents were asked about the most important issues people are facing in Chhattisgarh and the country. In response, 30.3% respondents listed unemployment as the most important issue, while 26.4% said rising prices was the biggest issue, followed by poverty (9.7 per cent), corruption (7.8 per cent), education system (2.2%), women security (2 per cent), communal tension (1.8 per cent) and other/local issues (19.8 per cent).

One of the questions was also about their preferred choice for the Chief Minister post. While 48.8% of the people favoured current CM Bhupesh Baghel (INC), with 46.3 per cent saying they were ‘very much satisfied’ and 31.5 per cent ‘satisfied to some extent’ with his performance. While 23.7 per cent said BJP’s Raman Singh was their top choice, current Deputy Chief Minister TS Singh Deo (INC) had 13 per cent rooting for him. Only 1.2 per cent favoured BJP’s Ramesh Bais, but over 13 per cent voted for ‘Others’ as their preferred choice for CM.

When asked how satisfied the people of Chhattisgarh are with the performance of the Baghel government, 42.5 per cent respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’, 34 per cent said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’ and 22.8 per cent said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.

On the question of how satisfied the people of Chhattisgarh are with the performance of the central government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 47.1 per cent respondents said that they are ‘very much satisfied’, while 36.1 per cent said that they are ‘satisfied to some extent’; 15.6 per cent said that they are ‘not at all satisfied’ with the work done by the central government.

When asked how satisfied they are with PM Modi’s performance, 64.2 per cent respondents said they are ‘very much satisfied’, 15.7 per cent said they are ‘satisfied to some extent’, and 15.1 per cent said they are ‘not at all satisfied’.

ABP News-CVoter also carried out a Snap Poll in Chhattisgarh, and as per the findings, 66.5 per cent BJP supporters think the party’s decision to announce candidates for 21 seats much before the elections is right, while 47.7 per cent Congress voters and 56 per cent ‘Others’ also think it is a right decision.  Over 22 per cent BJP voters and 35.2% Congress supporters think the decision is wrong.

Asked if the BJP had besieged CM Baghel in a personal fight by fielding his nephew Vijay Baghel against him, 53.3 per cent BJP voters, 36.4 per cent Congress voters and 48.8 per cent ‘Others’ said ‘Yes’ in reply. The answer from 36.1 per cent BJP supporters, 50.9 per cent Congress supporters and 41.9 per cent ‘Others’ was a ‘No’.

ABP News-CVoter conducted a Snap Poll in election-bound Madhya Pradesh too. The questions asked were if the BJP’s decision to announce candidates for 39 seats much before the elections is right or wrong, and if the ruling party has taken an early lead with this decision. Replying to the first question, 63.2 per cent BJP voters, 32.7 per cent Congress voters and 43.9 per cent ‘Others’ said ‘Yes’. The corresponding figures for ‘No’ were 23.2 per cent, 44.9  per cent, and 35.6 per cent, respectively. In reply to the second question, 50.2 per cent BJP voters, 23.2 per cent Congress voters and 38.9 per cent ‘Others’ said ‘yes’, and 41.8 per cent BJP voters, 73.7 per cent INC voters and 48.1 per cent ‘Others’ said ‘No’.