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Zenith revises global ad spend growth forecast upwards

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MUMBAI: Zenith Optimedia’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts is a bellwether for the global ad industry. And the top notch media agency revised its earlier June forecasts for the rest year in an update posted today. Zenith says that global adex will grow by 4.4 per cent to reach $539 billion, much better than 4.1 per cent growth it forecast earlier.  It will expand by 4.5 per cent in 2017, and 4.6 per cent in 2018, better than the 4.3 per cent and 4.4 per cent it had earlier estimated. By 2018 global advertising expenditure will total  $589 billio,  $4 billion more than forecast in June.

The US, the Philippines and Western Europe drive faster adspend growth

This upgrade is mainly the result of stronger-than-expected growth in the US, where a strong labour market has encouraged consumers to increase their expenditure, and advertisers have fought harder for their share of the expanding market. The agency expects US network TV to return to growth this year (at one  per cent) after shrinking five  per cent last year, thanks to new spending by pharmaceutical and consumer packaged goods companies and a strong upfront. Zenith stated that it expects social media to accelerate from 32  per cent growth last year to 35  per cent growth this year, as advertisers take advantage of new formats, such as in-feed video, and the transition to mobile internet consumption continues. Overall the agency forecasts that US ad spend to grow 4.4  per cent this year, compared to the previous estimate of 3.8  per cent.

Zenith has also made slight upgrades to its adspend forecasts for Asia Pacific and Western Europe. It has revised its estimate for APAC from 6.2 per cent to 6.3 per cent and for Western Europe from 3.5 per cent to 3.6 per cent. Its APAC optimism is based on  heavy political spending in the Philippines in the run-up to the May 2016 elections. Its bullishness about Western Europe is courtesy improved conditions in Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Portugal and Sweden have compensated for the  slowdown in the UK.

Mild weakening of UK ad market after Brexit vote

Although the vote for ‘Brexit’ in the UK’s EU referendum came as a shock to many in the market, so far advertisers have reacted calmly, with no widespread budget reductions. Zenith has forecast a 5.4  per cent growth in ad spend this year, fractionally less than its  5.6  per cent forecast just before the vote. The agency says that its view is that most of the impact that Brexit will have on the UK ad market will happen in the long term.

The UK’s new terms of trade with the EU and other countries – whatever they turn out to be – are likely to restrict flows of trade and investment in comparison with the pre-Brexit status quo, leading to slower economic growth and slower growth in advertising expenditure. In the short term, uncertainty about the consequences of the vote will make companies less likely to invest in new products, and consumers less likely to take on big spending commitments. This could lead to anything from disappointingly slow growth to outright recession. Zenith’s current forecasts assume that economic growth will slow but remain positive, in which case UK adspend will grow 3.4  per cent next year, down from its pre-vote forecast of four per cent growth.

Mobile advertising taking over from desktop even faster than expected

In June, Zenith had forecast that mobile advertising would overtake desktop in 2017.  And it says its position has not changed on this score, excepting that it has upgraded its forecasts for mobile growth for this year (from 46  per cent to 48  per cent) and next year (from 29  per cent to 33  per cent), and  it now expects mobile adspend to exceed desktop by $ 8billion in 2017, up from the $2billion it predicted in June. Zenith expects mobile to account for 60 per cent of all internet advertising by 2018, up from the earlier forecast of 58 per cent.

Desktop to shrink by more than newspapers or magazines to 2018

The agency’s view is that desktop advertising peaked in 2014 at $99 billion and shrank 0.1  per cent in 2015 to $98.9 billion as advertisers switched their budgets to mobile. It now expects desktop advertising’s decline to accelerate over the next few years with spends falling by 0.8  per cent in 2016, 2.9  per cent in 2017 and 7.4  per cent in 2018. Between 2015 and 2018 desktop adspend will have shrunk by $10.7billion, more than the other two declining media – newspapers (which will shrink by $9.6 billion) and magazines ($4.4 billion). Meanwhile mobile adspend will grow by $81.3 billion over the same period, seven times more than the combined growth of television ($7.3 billion), outdoor ($3 billion), radio ($0.9 billion) and cinema ($0.7 billion).

“The global ad market has strengthened over the past few months, thanks mainly to the resilient US consumer,” said Zenith head of forecasting Jonathan Barnard. “So far any impact from the vote for Brexit has been limited, and confined to the UK. We expect the global ad market to strengthen further in 2017 and 2018.”

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India’s Economic Survey 2025-26 calls for ban on junk food ads from 6am to 11pm

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DELHI: India is staring down a junk food epidemic, and the government wants to fight back with an advertising ban. The Economic Survey, tabled in the Lok Sabha on Thursday, has pitched a radical proposal: prohibit ultra-processed food advertisements from 6am to 11pm across all media platforms.

The timing is hardly coincidental. India has become one of the world’s fastest-growing markets for ultra-processed foods: those calorie-laden concoctions of burgers, noodles, pizza and soft drinks that increasingly dominate Indian diets. The consequences are written in the waistlines of a growing number of Indians.

Excess weight among children under five has jumped from 2.1 per cent in 2015-16 to 3.4 per cent in 2019-21, the survey notes. More troubling still, over 3.3 crore children in India were obese in 2020, with projections suggesting that figure will balloon to 8.3 crore children by 2035.

The numbers for adults paint an equally grim picture. According to the 2019-21 National Family Health Survey, 24 per cent of Indian women and 23 per cent of Indian men are overweight or obese. Among women aged 15-49 years, 6.4 per cent are obese, whilst among men, 4 per cent are overweight, the survey said.

The pre-budget document doesn’t mince words about the scale of the challenge. To tackle ultra-processed foods, it advocates front-of-pack nutrition labelling for high-fat, sugar and salt foods, with warnings that restrict marketing to children and ensure trade agreements don’t undermine public health policy.

The survey also suggests restrictions on marketing infant and toddler milk and beverages, whilst flagging growing obesity among children.

The proposed marketing ban would run from 0600 hours to 2300 hours across all media, with mandatory enforcement of restrictions on marketing infant and toddler milk and beverages.

India isn’t treading new ground here. The survey points to Chile, which has integrated such laws, along with Norway and the UK, where advertisement restrictions are already in place for ultra-processed foods.

Britain recently banned junk food advertising before 9pm on television and online to reduce children’s exposure and curb childhood obesity. Further action on other marketing activities, including school and college sponsorship of events by ultra-processed food manufacturers, can be designed, the survey said.

Yet India’s regulatory landscape remains muddled. Rule 7 of the Advertisement Code prohibits misleading, unverified, or unhealthy advertisements but doesn’t define “misleading” with measurable or nutrient-based criteria, leaving interpretation subjective and inconsistent.

Similarly, the Central Consumer Protection Authority guidelines for prevention of misleading advertisements (2022) mandate that advertisements must not exaggerate health benefits or exploit children.

Yet they lack clear nutrient thresholds or a framework for identifying misleading claims in food marketing, the survey said, adding that this regulatory ambiguity allows companies marketing ultra-processed foods to continue making vague health, energy, or nutrition cues without violating any clearly defined standard, highlighting a critical policy gap that needs reform.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. India is one of the fastest-growing markets for ultra-processed food sales, contributing to chronic diseases worldwide and widening health inequalities.

The survey lays bare the commercial triumph of junk food in India. Sales of ultra-processed foods grew more than 150 per cent between 2009 and 2023. Retail sales surged from $0.9 billion in 2006 to nearly $38 billion in 2019, a 40-fold rise. It is during the same period that obesity has nearly doubled in both men and women, the survey said.

The document advocates a multi-pronged approach to tackle the rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (popularly known as junk foods), which includes burgers, noodles, pizza, soft drinks, and the like, warning it is contributing to chronic diseases worldwide and widening health inequalities.

Improving diets cannot depend solely on consumer behaviour change, the survey argues. It will require coordinated policies across food systems that regulate ultra-processed food production, promote healthier and more sustainable diets and marketing.

The gauntlet has been thrown. Whether India’s policymakers have the stomach to take on the junk food industry remains to be seen.

 

 

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PHD Media names Vinita Shrivastav VP – business planning to lead Marico mandate

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MUMBAI:  PHD Media has appointed Vinita Shrivastav as vice president – business planning, taking charge of the agency’s Marico portfolio and reinforcing its strategic leadership bench. The move signals the agency’s commitment to delivering future-ready, high-impact solutions for one of India’s most iconic FMCG brands.

Vinita brings over 17 years of experience across brand strategy, integrated marketing, media planning, research, and business leadership. Recognised as Best South Asian Strategic Planner of the Year by Campaign Asia, she is known for building insight-led, scalable growth platforms across categories.

She started her career with a research foundation at TAM Media, before taking on leadership roles across Reliance and Zee. She later joined Mindshare’s core strategy team, led the marketing vertical at IN10 Media, and most recently drove the L’Oréal business at Wavemaker, delivering integrated, high-impact media and brand-building solutions across markets.

In her new role, Vinita will steer the Marico mandate, focusing on strategic innovation, business growth, and integrated, future-ready media solutions. She will collaborate closely with both Marico and PHD Media leadership to build scalable, impactful brand platforms that deliver long-term business value.

“This appointment strengthens our strategic leadership and reinforces PHD Media’s commitment to insight-led planning and execution excellence. Vinita brings the analytical depth, commercial acumen, and strategic vision to drive innovation and growth for one of India’s most respected FMCG brands,” said a spokesperson for PHD Media.

Vinita said, “I am excited to join PHD Media and lead the Marico portfolio. In today’s dynamic market, building scalable, insight-driven brand platforms is critical. I look forward to collaborating with the teams at PHD Media and Marico to deliver strategic, high-impact solutions that drive long-term business value.”

With this appointment, PHD Media underscores its focus on category-defining brand partnerships and intelligence-led planning, ensuring the agency remains at the forefront of strategic media innovation.

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India’s top 100 advertisers set to chase Rs 1.15 lakh crore in 2026

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New Delhi: India’s biggest advertisers are gearing up for a spending spree. Fresh Adex estimates show marketing spends crossing Rs 1.15 lakh crore in 2026, with digital accounting for more than half of total outlays and the top 100 brands tightening their grip on the market.

Data tracking ad spends across 2024 and projected growth through 2025 suggests rising concentration at the top. Around 35 per cent of total adex is expected to come from just the top 50 marketers, underscoring the growing clout of a handful of deep-pocketed brands.

India crossed the Rs 1,00,000 crore advertising milestone in 2025, posting over 10 per cent year-on-year growth, making it the fastest-growing major ad market globally. The pace shows little sign of easing.

At the summit, FMCG remains unshakeable. Unilever continues to lead the pack, with Procter & Gamble, Reckitt, Mondelēz International, Godrej Consumer Products, ITC, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, L’Oréal, Amul, Nestlé and Colgate-Palmolive showing no appetite for budget cuts.

Reliance Industries is expected to overtake India’s second-largest advertiser, closing in on Unilever at the top of the table. Autos are the next big battleground, with at least 25 new car and two-wheeler launches pushing Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Honda and Hero MotoCorp to step up spending.

Digital-first brands are now firmly entrenched among the heavyweights. Amazon, Google and Flipkart sit alongside quick commerce players Swiggy, Zomato and Zepto, reflecting a decisive shift in where the money follows attention.

Fintech is emerging as the fastest-growing category. Groww, NPCI and Angel One are scaling spends rapidly, filling the vacuum left by gaming firms, which saw the sharpest pullback in 2025.

India’s home-grown stalwarts—LIC, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement and Havells—continue to deploy capital steadily, while pan masala advertisers remain reliably aggressive, indifferent to cycles or sentiment.

Behind the numbers lies a structural shift. Television budgets are steadily moving towards connected TV, OTT platforms, digital video and OOH screens as advertisers chase sharper targeting and measurable returns.

The conclusion is blunt: the chase for India’s top 100 advertisers will be brutal in 2026—but the real opportunity may lie just beyond them. In a slowing global economy, India’s ad engine is still accelerating.

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